New Edirn - Part 2

Stagnation and Decline

Arransia was not involved in the wars of the 1910s, but obviously they had an effect on New Edirn’s trade. The Arransian navy did an efficient job in organising a convoy system to keep New Edirn's commerce flowing, but in return for this the defence levy was controversially tripled during the period of hostilities which led to some bad feeling. The 1920s, as with Arransia, saw an illusory return to normality during which period insufficient attention was given to modernising the country’s economy and infrastructure. Internal politics also become preoccupied with faction-fighting and New Edirn lacked leaders of Pirrie’s long-term vision. Immigration largely dried up after 1915, but the 1925 census recorded a population of 898,000 and it is believed the population peaked at 905,000 in 1929. The 1920s also saw the railways re-equipped with some impressive new Arransian-built steam locomotives, and the visit of the Arransian battle fleet to Muirhead in 1927 as part of their round-the-world cruise is remembered as a record week of business for the city’s bars and brothels.

While the 1930s recession did affect New Edirn, people still needed to eat and its economy did not suffer as badly as Arransia's, nor did it come near to economic collapse. However, a country built on immigration can easily suffer the opposite effect, and as the economy started to decline young people increasingly started looking elsewhere, at first mainly Thirland but after that pretty much everywhere they could reach, most notably Brunswick and Acadia. The 1935 census showed a population of 866,000, 1945 809,000. As the population fell, other aspects of the economy started to be affected and the country began to feel as if it was locked in a cycle of decline. New building virtually ceased, marginal agricultural land was abandoned and some of the more remote settlements began to resemble ghost towns. Arransia, with her own major economic problems, was in no position to do much to help, and during this period the Social Credit Party, which had a strong Skanian influence, came to power in New Edirn and began to question the value of continuing ties with Arransia. In 1941 there was, however, a very favourable response to a courtesy visit by the Badger under the command of Patrick Scullion who gave an extended and eloquent radio interview.

The following year Arransia was at war with Brunswick and, after a very anguished debate, the Legislative Assembly of New Edirn decided by 125 votes to 17, with 8 abstentions, to remain neutral, and to cease to pay the defence levy to Arransia. Arransia in response terminated all defence commitments and wasted an hour of Cabinet time discussing how to mount an expeditionary force to occupy New Edirn, while Ormonde even toyed with unilaterally withdrawing the Arransian Crown from the country, an idea that King Andrew immediately rejected. Realistically, it is hard to see how the New Edirners could have reached any other conclusion, but those who favoured the declaration of war (including the future leader Tam Raeburn) argued that in the long term a glorious defeat and making someone else responsible for the country's economic problems might stand the country in better stead. This of course exposed New Edirn’s lack of her own defence forces, and a part-time National Guard was hastily assembled, although they would have been able to do nothing in the face of a serious invasion. This led to a renewed appreciation of the martial qualities of the Roatangi, who had a proud history as warriors and were also, after 150 years of eating plenty of pork and beef, often impressively tall and broad. Around 8,000 New Edirners served as volunteers in the Arransian forces during the war, often with great courage and distinction.

After a moderate upturn in the late 1930s, the period of the war saw further economic decline, although most emigration routes were now blocked off and an attempt to recruit New Edirners into Thirlish regiments got a very dusty response. New Edirn did continue to trade with Brunswick and her allies, and indeed in the later stages of the war Brunswick bought up most of the wool harvest to use in making uniforms. Nevertheless, coal, oil and many other imported commodities were in short supply. The elusive Arransian submariner James Guthrie spent some time hiding in the Scimitar in remote creeks along the coast, where he was given much help by the local people, and in February 1949 the Mayonnaise cruiser Le Tonnant under the command of the audacious Gilbert Duchêne famously paid a 24-hour visit to Hobbes that provoked a near-hysterical local reaction and by reliable accounts had naked teenage Roatangi girls swimming out to meet the ship. He was able to slip away before the Brunswickians were able to send a superior force, and this incident, while in no way contravening international law, obviously did not exactly endear the New Edirners to them.

Crisis and Recovery

The ultimate defeat of Arransia and Mayenne seemed to give a clear message that New Edirn should look at new allegiances in the post-war world, and in the Autumn of 1949 the Social Credit Party won a record election victory on that platform. The following year, a referendum was held on replacing the monarchy with a republic, which was passed, but surprisingly only by 53% to 47%. Efforts were made on several fronts to build up trade with Brunswick and her allies and reduce dependence on Arransia and Mayenne. One of the most obvious manifestations of this was that the Brunswickians persuaded them to scrap a large number of ageing but perfectly serviceable steam locomotives and to replace them with a fleet of what turned out to be underpowered and unreliable diesels. The same might have happened to the tram systems if the town councils had had the money to buy new buses.

However, the end of the war and the worldwide economic boom that followed opened up the possibility of emigration once more, and the population fell further from 809,000 in 1945 to 737,000 in 1955, even though there was a modest revival in agricultural markets. This caused growing problems for the treasury, which were exacerbated by the fact that widespread corruption had been allowed to develop in the public finances, something that was surprising as Arransia and Skania are both notably corruption-free. Added to this, New Edirn owed large sums to Arransian banks who were getting nervous about their investments. In 1955 this led to a financial crisis with the government faced with having to default on loans and in effect declare national bankruptcy. An emergency election led to the more pro-Arransian Thomas “Tam” Raeburn (1907-90) of the National Country Party becoming Chief Minister, a post he held until 1976.

This resulted in the memorable events of March 1956 when the Arransian fleet spearheaded by the Queen Margaret and commanded by the notoriously stern Admiral James “Black Jim” Thomson paid a courtesy visit to Muirhead which seemed designed to underline the point that Arransia had pulled herself up by her bootstraps and made herself once again a nation to be reckoned with. Patrick Scullion flew in and addressed the Legislative Assembly, stressing that “we are your friends”, but with the unspoken subtext that “we’re the only bloody friends you’ve got”. He also made the point that, while Arransia offered help and advice, it would not and could not bail out New Edirn and unpalatable medicine would have to be swallowed.

The Arransian government did agree to underwrite some of New Edirn’s debts, and a preferential trade agreement was negotiated which gave Arransia a monopoly of imports of many manufactured goods. A team of Arransian civil servants was drafted in to root out corruption, balance the books and streamline the administration. Hard decisions had to be taken, particularly in the scaling back or scrapping of over-generous social benefits, but the country was put back on an even keel and the population exodus was stemmed. New Edirn had in fact been in advance of Arransia in providing old age pensions and unemployment and sickness pay, but after these reforms no pensions were payable below the age of 70, and other benefits were very limited. New Edirn remained rather remote from all the social upheavals of the 1960s, and Raeburn was one of the few foreign leaders to give Scullion strong support over his handling of the 1968 crisis. Television eventually came to the island in 1969 which gave them a wider perspective on the outside world.

The period from 1976 to 1990 saw the Social Credit Party return to power and there were more doubts about the relationship with Arransia as that country seemed to have rather lost its way, although since then sentiment has turned back again. There was a notable boost to national pride in 1999 when the national rugby team,who had been greatly strengthened in the post-war period by the growing involvement of the powerful and athletic Roatangi, won the World Cup by defeating Thirland 32-27 on their home soil in what is widely regarded as the greatest rugby match of all time.

The current Chief Minister is Joe Meruti (b 1955) of the National Country Party, who is the first native Roatangi to occupy the role. In 2007 he dared to do something that none of his predecessors had and in September held a referendum on restoring the King of Arransia as Head of State, which produced a 71% “yes” vote, despite no opinion poll putting it over 60%. The fact that it would wind up the Thirlanders obviously had a part to play too. A formal investiture ceremony is planned for November. King Malcolm is very flattered (although obviously he could not and did not actively campaign) and is confident he will be well enough to undertake the journey.

New Edirn Today

There remains a slightly sad, melancholy look to the country, like someone trying to occupy clothes that are now too big for him. It has to accept its position as a mainly agricultural country in a rather peripheral location that may have First World antecedents but cannot really aspire to First World levels of prosperity. The current GDP per head is little more than 70% than that of Arransia, although the fact that home-grown food is very cheap, and imported road fuel is much more lightly taxed, means that real living standards are more like 80%. This is galling as it is reckoned that in 1911 New Edirn was in fact per head slightly better off, although as living standards have not actually declined year-on-year since the war the disparity isn’t immediately obvious to the local population. The lack of either state unemployment benefit or a minimum wage means that low-paid underemployment is much more common than actual unemployment. Because of its low cost of living, frost-free winters and the fact the - unlike in many other countries - Arransian pensions are uprated annually in line with those in the home country - New Edirn has also become an attractive retirement location for Arransian pensioners, with around 2,000 moving there every year.

Nickel and uranium mines have been developed which provide some well-paid jobs, and in recent years improvements in telecommunications have made the country attractive as a location for IT activities and call centres. New Edirners have a slightly formal, old-fashioned accent that is widely perceived as both friendly and trustworthy. A growing number of farms have gained organic status and the locally-produced McCosker’s Whisky, in a slightly more refined form than provided to the home market, has become something of a cult drink in some countries of Beruna. There have been some attempts at drilling for oil off the coastline but the geology is not felt to be very promising. It has to be said that the New Edirners are always keen to look at ways to develop and diversify their economy and are not at all content to remain in a backwater status. In recent years they have invested heavily in wind and tidal power to reduce their dependence on imported coal and oil for power generation, and over 20% of the country’s electricity now comes from renewables. Arransian advice to build a nuclear power station was rejected. Unfortunately the lack of sunshine, spectacular scenery or historic buildings limit the opportunities to attract foreign tourists, although there are some fine golf courses.

The contrast with Thirland, which is a much more obviously prosperous and vibrant country (albeit its additional prosperity largely stems from rich mineral reserves), is very marked, and there remains a steady trickle of young people moving across the water, although it is often said that “every emigrant from New Edirn to Thirland improves the average intelligence of both countries”. The population has, however, stabilised now and the slack is taken up by growth in the Roatangi population who now number about 70,000, almost 10% of the total. The Thirlish are often quite contemptuous of the New Edirners, dismissing them as a bunch of drunken sheep-shaggers, so of course defeating them on their home soil in the final of the World Cup of what they see as their national sport was the most satisfying riposte imaginable.

Abandoned buildings are still common in the rural areas, and the city of Hobbes, which has also suffered from the decline of its fisheries, and has fallen from 60,000 to 35,000 people and been overtaken by Sophia as the country’s second city, is distinctly depressing. Following the example of Arransia, in recent years a major effort has been made to tidy the country up, with entire neighbourhoods being demolished and grassed over in some places. Much abandoned farmland has now been covered by pine forests. Nevertheless, particularly outside the main towns, New Edirn remains a distinctly scruffy and untidy looking place compared with Sabrantia, and a lack of planning controls means that where there is money the hacienda-style bungalow will inevitably appear. It must be said that the Roatangi, whatever their other virtues, are not known as a tidy people. The town of Halfway, which indeed is halfway along the road from Muirhead to Hobbes, is often cited as a prime example of this, a tatty two-mile strip of bars, diners, garages, discount retail outlets, agricultural factors and general stores bordering a main street over 60 feet wide down which cars routinely do twice the 30 mph speed limit.

While there can be a very rowdy atmosphere in town centres on Friday and Saturday nights, in other respects New Edirn is remarkably crime-free and is still somewhere that people really can leave their houses and cars unlocked.

Some of the above might give the impression that New Edirn is a somewhat gloomy, introspective place where people are inclined to drown their sorrows, but in fact it is a markedly cheerful country where there isn’t the sense of walking in the shadow of history that is often found in Arransia. The local devotion to sport, in particular rugby, cricket and many of the more rough and ready forms of motor sport, is a prime example of this. A New Edirner is likely to say to an uptight foreign visitor “loosen up mate, have a beer!”

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