Arransia Irredenta

While in general the Treaty of Ynysforgan in 1949 was relatively lenient to the Arransians, Brunswick insisted on the cession of South Holburn, which had been used to launch a last-ditch surprise attack in 1948. Although in Arransian hands since the mid-18th century, and occasionally before then, this had always been a somewhat debateable territory. Geographically, it looked more to Ynysforgan than over the hills to Howick or Holborough, and by 1942 probably at least 40% of the population were Brunswickian, insofar as it is possible to tell the difference.

Throughout the 1950s and 1960s this was accepted without protest. Most people in South Holburn were not particularly concerned about being transferred to Brunswick, which was generally perceived as a more prosperous and forward-looking country than Arransia. Brunswick improved the roads, removed steam traction from the railways by 1964, and introduced many new light industries. By 1969, Scaggleby, the chief town of South Holburn, appeared a smarter and wealthier place than towns over the border such as Ferndale or Kersall. It would have seemed inconceivable that a movement to return to Arransia would develop.

But, in the 1970s, things began to change. In terms of the whole of Brunswick, South Holburn was economically marginal, in a sense that North Holburn and South Teviot were not to Arransia. This meant that the 1970s recession bit very deep, and many of the new industries began to pull out. Then, in the 1980s, over half the coal mines closed down. Arransia had her troubles over coal during that period, but its central importance to the economy was never in doubt. These trends encouraged a growing population drift, mainly of the people with ties in other parts of Brunswick. The population fell from 285,000 in 1949 to 250,000 in 1990, with some former mining villages entirely deserted and being taken over by woodland.

By 1990 it was reckoned that South Holburn had become the poorest area in either Brunswick or Arransia, and had an unemployment rate of over 12%. Not surprisingly, this provoked a lot of resentment, which was generally directed at the distant government in Aubourg. More and more, this began to be expressed by people asserting their Arransian identity. Arransian flags were displayed (which is not common in the home country), Arransian money became the day-to-day means of exchange, and the locals increasingly took to buying second-hand Arransian cars, even though they did not conform with Brunswickian construction and use regulations. Pubs and shops reverted to using pints and pounds and ounces rather than metric measures. A few half-hearted attempts to stamp this out by the Affenthwaite State authorities drew controversy and ridicule, and this situation became generally tolerated.

During the 1990s, Brunswick in fact pumped a lot of money into the area, but it did not seem to make a lot of difference to the local economy, and by 2000 the population had further declined to 230,000. At least 5,000 people were commuting daily into Arransia and noticing that, while Ferndale and Kersall might be unprepossessing towns with a pall of pollution hanging over them, their mines and mills and steelworks were at least busy.

In 2001, unofficial signs appeared on many of the major roads crossing into South Holburn from Brunswick proper, saying:

There are also growing number of roadside signs showing a badger dressed as a freedom fighter, which also often appears as a bumper sticker. The signs were taken down, but appeared again, and by 2005 have been left to stand. In many residential areas, the kerbstones have been painted blue, green and white.

None of this amounts to anything very serious, and has not gone beyond the vandalism of some obvious symbols of Brunswickian rule, mostly notably road signs. There is certainly no question of anything that could be classed as terrorism. However, it clearly reflects a deep-seated unease that appears quite intractable. There also seems to be a general reluctance on the part of the Brunswickian authorities to enforce the law, with the result that levels of crime and road accidents are high, and the general impression given by the place is a deterrent to inward investment. The fact that many metric speed limit signs have been removed does not help road safety.

Against this background, in the early 2000s, the Arransian government, who previously had always kept studiously silent on the issue, began to gently make noises to Brunswick that the sovereignty of South Holburn should be reconsidered. Clearly South Holburn would be of little economic value to Arransia, apart from a marginal increase in the tax base, but on the other hand the return of the area would have a major symbolic value and would also remove a source of friction between the two countries. Arransia would also be in a position to provide more pump-priming investment – particularly in the form of a large new coal-fired power station, construction of which is planned to start in 2009, but a site has not yet been identified, and which could logically be placed in South Holburn. The Labour MP for Kersall, Michael Horrocks, has been particularly outspoken in suggesting that a lot of inward investment would be coming the way of South Holburn if it could be returned to Arransia. And it was very noticeable in mid-2005, with the unprecedently high oil price, that the coal mines in North Holburn were developing new seams and hiring miners; the few that remained in South Holburn were not.

The November 2005 general election in Brunswick resulted in a change of government from the National Democrats to the Social Reform Party, who had expressed a willingness to be more flexible on the South Holburn issue. Hopes grew in Arransia that Brunswick would move fairly quickly to a referendum and return the territory to its rightful home. For the outcome of this, see The South Holburn Referendum.

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