Arransian Political History8. 2006-2010 The general election on Friday 26th May 2006 saw a narrow victory for the Labour Party under Edward Douglas (b 1957), with an overall majority of only one seat, although in practice the number of mostly left-inclined independents meant that Labour would have a workable majority. Labour won 151 seats, against 141 for the Liberals and 9 Independents. The number of seats had been temporarily increased from 296 to 301 to take into account the re-incorporation of South Holburn, and indeed the final seat to be declared was Teversal & West Holburn, which was won by Labour over the Liberals by a mere 17 votes after several recounts. Since taking over the Labour leadership in 2003, Edward Douglas had made much progress in portraying Labour as a party that, while still committed to social justice, was not in any sense anti-business or anti-defence. He was a fluent and witty public speaker who was good at varying his tone to suit his audience, although occasionally accused of lacking substance. Lorna Bradshaw, the incumbent Liberal Chancellor, was a rather more pedestrian performer widely seen as lacking charisma, although she was seldom known to put a foot wrong and had shown a tough streak in keeping a firm hand on her party and out-staring Simon D’Arcy, the President of Brunswick, over the South Holburn issue. Douglas was duly sworn in as Chancellor. His senior team of ministers only had one carry-over from Gordon Bell’s administration of 1998-2002, David Aitcheson (b 1952) as Finance Minister. The Foreign Ministry went to Athol Barr (b 1949), Arransia’s first “black” cabinet minister, who had entered politics relatively late after a spell as a career diplomat. The other leading ministers were Bridget Mackenzie (b 1953) at Home Affairs, Stuart Logan (b 1960), Douglas’ right-hand man and a noted Labour right-winger, at Defence, William Galt (b 1958) at Transport and Marie Bannerman (b 1963) at Education. To a limited extent part of Labour’s election platform had been that the Liberals under Lorna Bradshaw (b 1948) had allowed too many foreign (particularly Brunswickian) takeovers of Arransian businesses. However, Douglas quicky established a warm relationship with the recently-elected President of Brunswick, Simon D’Arcy and, although one or two measures were put forward to make foreign bidders provide more information, that aspect of Labour’s campaign seemed to rapidly disappear. Indeed, trade talks produced a very visible symbol of closer co-operation in the form of an agreement to unify the construction and use regulations for private motor vehicles used in Arransia and Brunswick, which would be of major benefit to all manufacturers, and also potentially to buyers through lower prices. Arransia had already undertaken to reduce tariffs on imported cars over a number of years, but it remained the case that apart from a few specialist high-end vehicles there was no trade in cars between the two countries. The accident to the Queen Margaret during the election campaign had clearly brought defence policy to the top of the agenda, and when Parliament reconvened in September Stuart Logan announced the decision in principle to build a replacement carrier and to give the go-ahead for the detailed design work. The ship was originally pencilled in with a displacement of 33,000 tons, but by the time the formal order was placed in November 2007 this had grown to 39,000 tons. She was to be named Leviathan, a name carried by two three-decker ships of the line in the age of sail, but not by a modern steam warship. She would be built at Caird’s shipyard at Elswick and was provisionally scheduled to commence sea trials in March 2014. In 2006, Logan also authorised the construction of the second pair of advanced guided-missile destroyers to serve as carrier escorts, which were to be named Henderson and Lawson after two distinguished admirals of the Great War who had also both done much to develop co-operation with the Brunswickian armed forces in the post-war era. In December 2008, it was officially announced that Brunswick was to order a sister ship to the Leviathan, also to be built at Caird’s and, fittingly, to be called the Hornet, which was the original name allocated to the Queen Margaret. Although it came as a surprise to some, in reality, this decision had always been on the cards, as it was recognised that Brunswick would benefit from a smaller and more flexible aircraft carrier more suitable for supporting amphibious operations, and some of the high-level design work for the Leviathan had been carried out by the Brunswickian naval design office. This would be the first new Brunswickian warship ever to be built in Arransia, although they had taken over a number of prizes in the days of sail. There was a certain amount of grumbling about this in the tabloid press but, as one commentator pointed out, “you can criticise the Jimmies for plenty of things, but being crap at building ships isn’t one of them.” The Queen Margaret was duly repaired and returned to service in the Autumn of 2006, although it was believed that, in order not to overtax the elderly steam plant, she had been limited to a maximum speed of 17 knots and also that the maximum take-off weight of aircraft using the steam catapults had been restricted. Nevertheless, the following year she steamed over 30,000 miles without mishap while participating in a major military exercise with Barrozo and Skania. Logan also announced Arransia would take part in the Brunswickian programme to “remanufacture” the B-39 long-range strategic bombers, which effectively meant building new aircraft using a few fuselage parts from the old ones. This would, in the first instance, cover 14 of Arransia’s 22 existing aircraft, the first of which would enter service in late 2009. He also approved the programme to producing a modern turboprop replacement for the elderly R-16 flying boats which provided Arransia’s maritime reconnaissance capability. This caused a number of raised eyebrows, especially as the Brunswickians had a very serviceable landplane design, the R-19, which had put in sterling service with their own air force and had also been widely exported. However, the Arransians were very attached to the go-anywhere ability of the flying boats, and Admiral Hewitt, the commander of the RNAS, said he believed the new aircraft would confound all the doubters and achieve a number of export sales. Although constructed under the Brunswickian military aircraft certification system, these would be the first large multi-engined aircraft ever built in Arransia. A special production facility was established on the Embo Firth and the prototype first flew in February 2010, with active service commencing in November of the same year. Taken as a whole, this amounted to the largest peacetime defence programme in Arransian history, and Labour had emphatically shed their reputation as a party that dragged its feet on defence. Indeed, one or two Liberal backbenchers were heard to mutter about how it was all going to be paid for, although they could equally point to a handful of Douglas’ MPs who felt it was all a bit of a waste of money and pandering to the generals and admirals. Certainly, Admiral Philip Leslie (b 1951), the Commander-in-Chief, was felt to have played a very astute political hand in getting all of this expenditure authorised. As promised in Labour’s election manifesto, William Galt lost no time in giving approval to the electrification of the railway network between Holborough and Howick, which was currently the major stronghold of steam working. This work was completed in 2010. The main focus of steam working would move to the route from Stainton to Marske via Aldminster, and to a lesser extent in South Holburn. However, despite what may have seemed a retrenchment, for the first time Arransian National Railways made an official statement that they envisaged a limited amount of steam working continuing on the network indefinitely. This also led to sixteen brand new steam locomotives being constructed to designs following the principles of the celebrated engineer Bruce Watson, although not exact copies of his 1930s originals. In September 2007, two of these, the 2-8-2s of Class P4, ran a special train between Aubourg and Danby, changing engines at Ynysforgan, which broke the existing steam speed record between the two cities, set in 1927, by over 10 mph. No. 821 was worked particularly hard over the in places steeply-graded line from Ynysforgan to Danby and, although nominally a mixed traffic rather than express locomotive, achieved an end-to-end average of 82 mph which was quicker than any timetable for scheduled electric-hauled expresses before the early 1980s. In the summer of the previous year, Watson’s veteran 4-6-2 locomotive, No. 4 Countess of Hanwold, of class A1, built in 1940, was taken to the west of Brunswick, where on a quiet section of near-level track, she broke the official world steam speed record, achieving 115.2 mph along a measured mile westbound, and 113.7 mph eastbound, an average of 114.4 mph. Although Brunswickian, Colmarine and Mayonnaise locomotives had been recorded at faster speeds, none were achieved on level track under test conditions. This perhaps somewhat Quixotic achievement was obviously widely celebrated in Arransia, and served to underline their view that the locomotive’s designer, Bruce Watson, was the finest steam engineer of all time. The locomotive had been withdrawn from regular service in 1964 and since then, although with her sister No. 1 Countess of Marchwood, had been carefully maintained and only used occasionally on special trains, so although 66 years old was still in first-class mechanical order. This achievement was celebrated on the new $20 note introduced in October 2007. Watson received further recognition by giving his name to the train ferry which entered service between Beadnell and La Hogue in November 2007, and which would bring large parts of Mayenne within the scope of the Arransian wagonload freight system. Advance orders for the service had been so strong that a second vessel had already been ordered, named after Watson’s 1930s Mayonnaise counterpart Laurent Pelletier (although many Arransians would consider Pelletier’s designs to be a byword for fussy, overcomplicated Mayonnaise engineering). This began operation in the Spring of 2009, and the pair of oddly-proportioned, boxy yet elongated ships became an established fixture on the crossing. After carrying out a detailed study, in 2007 Galt authorised the construction of the “Western Railway” bypass of Danby. This, the first substantial stretch of new railway built in Arransia for a hundred years, would include new stretches of line between Thornley and Radway, which would basically be an alternative route for north-south freight trains, and an upgrade of the line from Dacre to Colden and a new link across to Goodshaw which would also allow through passenger trains to Laithby, Holborough and the North-West to avoid the busy main line through Dunsford and Petersburgh. The northern section was expected to open in 2011 and the southern section in 2012. The objective of avoiding any gradients steeper than 1 in 250 meant that this line would include substantial cuttings, embankments and viaducts and, while narrower than a four-lane Expressway, would have more of an impact on the landscape. Given that it would run through well-heeled commuter territory in Bucklow, it was likely to provoke significant opposition both from environmentalists and those concerned about property values. Indeed, a major environmental protest group was created and a protest camp set up at Goodshaw in the summer of 2008. The combative Galt, who could be described as an enthusiast for all forms of transport but especially railways, was extremely scathing about this, making the point that the campaigners objected to Arransia building new roads, and when they decided to build new railways they moaned about that too. “Next thing they’ll be whining about improved packhorse trails causing soil erosion,” he said. In the event, there was always something slightly half-hearted about the protest camp, and it was eventually cleverly defused by applying the vehicle standards regulations and slapping rectification notices on many of the vehicles in the camp meaning that they would be unable to leave under their own power. The camp broke up over the winter months and did not delay construction work to any significant degree. In the Autumn of 2006, In September 2006, Galt gave the go-ahead for a number of road schemes, including, as expected, the A25 western bypass of Danby and the upgrading of the A6 between Stainton and the Brunswickian border to 3-lane expressway standard. The latter received some funding from Brunswick as part of the “Ynysforgan-Stainton Route Development Programme” – of all Arransian roads, this was the one Brunswickian hauliers complained about most. Galt also approved the Expressway upgrade of the A5 between Owmby and Pentrich, removing the last non-Expressway section between the border and Hebburn, and an all-purpose bypass for the notoriously congested town of Clive in Bucklow on the A7. Linked to the A25 scheme, Galt gave the green light for the widening of the A3 Expressway between Bowood and the A31 junction to three-lane standard. At Shorland, where the existing road negotiated a narrow concrete cutting through a residential area, the widening included an entirely new alignment about 1.5 miles long, which would result in a one-way loop around a built-up area unique in either Arransia or Brunswick. Some Brunswickians commented that Arransia was now building new roads rather more enthusiastically than they were at home. The A25, A5 and A6 schemes were all basically online upgrades which were not really susceptible to road protest action. The A5 scheme was completed in September 2009 and the A25 in April 2010; however, the complex A3 improvement will not be opened until the Spring of 2011, with the A6, which passes through heavily-developed industrial areas and posed a number of design challenges, not expected to be fully opened until the summer of 2012. A further road construction announcement was the replacement of the elderly combined road and rail lifting bridge linking Verne Island to the mainland. During the very hot summer of 2006 this had jammed during the Arransian Open golf championship, which was held at the Royal Drumness course on Verne, causing much national embarrassment and effectively forcing the government’s hand. The new bridge would still only have a single rail line, but would carry a 3-lane road, with the centre lane reversible. It was originally announced as a swing bridge, but on further consideration the design was changed to be another bascule-type lifting bridge. This, also including electrification of the route from Skerne on to the island, was completed on schedule in the summer of 2010. The winter of 2006-07 saw some of the most severe winter weather Arransia had experienced for a generation, with a foot of snow blanketing most of the country, and much more over the uplands. However, a major effort was put in to keep the roads and railways clear, and to keep the major canals free of ice, with spectacular pictures of traffic continuing to run over the Bowstones and Shoulder of Mutton passes north of Holborough between twelve-foot walls of piled-up snow. Edward Douglas, when praising the efforts of the emergency workers in Parliament, wryly made the comment that the eyes of the world had been on Arransia when one lifting bridge had been jammed for a couple of days, but her success in keeping her transport networks running in very adverse conditions was ignored. Galt referred the issue of the upgrading of the A61 between Holborough and Sorbie over the Shoulder of Mutton Pass to a commission of enquiry, because of the environmental sensitivity of the route running through the Black Mountains National Park. The result of this when it reported in late 2008 was to recommend the construction of a 1.75 mile single-carriageway tunnel under the base of the pass. This was mainly intended for lorry traffic, with lighter vehicles continuing to use the existing road, but would also provide a high-quality all-weather route in midwinter. This unusual scheme was approved in principle, but no construction started before the 2010 general election. 2007 saw the completion of two significant road projects authorised by the previous government. The notorious “Porcupine Gap” on the A3 was finally closed in April, eliminating the last stretch of single carriageway on the main route from the Tri-Cities to Danby. The in October, the upgrade of the main A1 Expressway between Danby and Stainton to dual three-lane standard was completed, giving Arransia a central road spine that was up to the standard of anything in Brunswick. It was becoming ever more wide of the mark to characterise Arransia as a country of inadequate roads. From 1 April 2008, a “congestion charge” was introduced in Danby, charging vehicles entering the central zone bounded on the west by the Coronation Parkway and the Esk Tunnel a $2 entry fee from Monday to Friday, with residents given a 50% discount. The main aim of this was to fund transport improvements in Danby – realistically it was not a serious deterrent to vehicle use. The intention was that it would pay for various transport projects, including tram upgrades, the construction of a north-south railway tunnel, park-and-ride upgrades and road improvements on the north-south A1 route including a number of tunnels under congested junctions. Initially, it was widely welcomed as a bold initiative, but progress on the transport improvements by May 2010 was very slow and it was meeting with increasing resentment. There was also talk of a 50% increase in the daily fee. March 2008 saw the opening of the spectacular cable-stayed Golcar Viaduct taking the A6 Expressway across the steep-sided Derwent Valley and bypassing a stretch of the old road which involved a precipitous 1 in 8 descent into the town and climb out of it. This was a thing of startling beauty that was oddly un-Arransian. It was also something of a white elephant, as further improvements to the road on either side had been put on hold, although much of it was already of 2+1 standard and the main problem was gradients rather than congestion. The following month, early one Sunday morning, the RNAS famously flew a B-39 bomber under the viaduct and then put it into a full-power climb over the town. To prevent any amateur repetition, within a few weeks anti-aircraft netting was strung underneath the viaduct, in which more than one light aircraft was to become entangled. The collaboration between the Arransian Motor Corporation and the Mayonnaise Charnier company bore fruit with the introduction of three new models, the small AMC200 in October 2007, the medium-sized AMC400 a year later, and the large AMC 600 a year after that. The first of these was basically just a reskinning of the existing Charnier C202, but the other two both included a considerable amount of Arransian engineering input. They also both had advanced (and somewhat costly) gas suspension, which in the case of the AMC400 made it about the only car in its class with this feature, and it was praised by many motoring journalist for its combination of smooth ride and taut handling. Due to the general economic slowdown, sales of these models were not quite as strong as had been hoped, but they for the first time gave Arransian motorists a range of modern domestically produced vehicles that were the equal of anything else on the market. Indeed, in Autumn 2009 a small chain of dealerships was set up in Brunswick to sell low-spec versions of the AMC200 as the “Atkinson 200” which appealed to a certain type of traditionalist, economy-minded Brunswickian car buyer. From the beginning of 2008, significant changes were made to the system of driving tuition, allowing young people to start learning with appropriate supervision at 17, as in Brunswick, rather than 18, but making it more difficult to obtain a licence at 16 for work-releated purposes, something that had in the past been liberally interpreted. The regeneration of South Holburn continued apace, with the population increasing by 15,000 by May 2010, and much new housing being built. Trams began running again in Northcotes in 2007, and in Scaggleby a year later, and the steeply-graded railway line between Northcotes and Holborough, disused since 1948, was reopened. The very deep Gleadhill colliery at Northcotes – scene of a notorious mining distater in 1913 – restarted production and approval was given for a large new coal-fired power station at Warcop Moor, which was expected to start generation in 2011. Ironically, although it was geographically very close, the coal produced from Gleadhill proved of too high a quality to burn in power stations, and became the major source of locomotive and domestic fuel in the country. The government also authorised the construction of a second nuclear power station at Thurness, as the existing one would have to go out of service by 2020 and it was important to ensure some diversity of supply. Until now, Arransia had tended to be very sceptical about the value of wind power, but approval was also given to a large wind farm on the north-east Edirn coast a few miles south of Thurness. This was an extremely bleak and windswept location where it was felt a reasonable amount of power could be obtained all year round. Cynics suggested one reason behind this was to encourage the manufacture of wind turbines in Arransia to service what was clearly a growing global market. Thurness “B”, which would be the fifth largest nuclear power station in the world, was also seen as something of a showcase for the Arransian power generation industry. Internationally, this was a period of subdued and often stagnant economic performance, which inevitably was reflected in Arransia. Economic growth did not exceed 1.5% in any of the years from 2007 to 2009, and indeed in the third quarter of 2008 there was a slight contraction of 0.1%. Some other countries experienced banking failures and crises, but this was not a problem in Arransia where the banks had in the past often been criticised for excessively conservative lending policies, and where there was a strict separation between retail and investment banking activities. The level of new car sales, always regarded as a barometer of economic success, fell from 287,000 in 2006 to 256,000 in 2009, despite the introduction of desirable new models by AMC, before picking up to 275,000 in 2010. David Aitcheson, the Finance Minister, was a somewhat dour character who, although in Labour terms a centrist rather than a right-winger, was a firm believer in a prudent fiscal policy and would not be panicked into taking any rash measures to stimulate the economy. The fact that some other countries had fared noticeably worse than Arransia, and none done significantly better, tended to mean that the government escaped serious blame for the lacklustre economic performance. In order to keep the deficit within bounds, a number of tax increases were imposed, including raising the highest rate of income tax from 30% to 35% on incomes over $100,000, and increasing alcohol and tobacco duties so they were only marginally below those in Brunswick, which did not please those involved in the cross-border retail trade. Aitcheson did not court popularity and to some extent he acted as a lightning rod for public discontent, allowing Douglas to maintain a healthy public approval rating. Arransian governments had always walked something of a tightrope between encouraging economic development by opening up the country’s economy and retaining control of what were seen as strategic economic assets. There was a widespread perception that if companies were allowed to pass into foreign (specifically Brunswickian) hands, high-level jobs would be lost and Arransian operations would be the first to be cut back in hard times. On the other hand, there was an equally widespread perception that too many domestic industries were dominated by cosy oligopolies that lacked a competitive spur and did not give the consumer good service. The previous Liberal government had attracted some criticism for opening up the economy too much to foreign takeovers. Labour developed a more systematic competition policy which considered a range of criteria covering national strategic importance, the need to compete on the international stage, domestic competitiveness and national distinctiveness and character, when assessing the competitive situation of each industry. This was undoubtedly well-meaning and consumed a lot of academic effort but was widely criticised for rigidity and over-complexity. One industry where old-fashioned practices and a lack of genuine competition was felt to be prevalent was insurance, and towards the end of 2007 the government attracted considerable criticism from economists for using the new policy to block a Brunswickian takeover of the Danby Provident insurance company, the second largest in Arransia, although it must be admitted that this decision was generally popular in the country. The generally subdued economic situation after that tended to suppress takeover activity and the spotlight was turned more on how the competition policy was used to channel aid to various industries. Debate continued in the academic sphere as to how effective this really was, but in principle it was something that remained popular with the general public and was not attacked outright by the Opposition. One of the core aspects of the government’s manifesto had been a radical overhaul of the country’s secondary education system, championed by Education Minister Marie Bannerman. The forthright, diminutive, redheaded Ms Bannerman had served as a teacher in a tough secondary school in Hebburn, so could claim a good knowledge of the subject. Arransia had a diverse, pluralistic education system with much more involvement of church funding and private endowments than in the UK. At the top end, Arransia had some of the finest schools in the world, the network of five very demanding scientific and technical high schools endowed by dyestuffs magnate Alexander McKechnie often being regarded as the jewel in its crown. Many of the County schools, especially in the more rural areas, were also very good. But in most areas it was relatively easy for middle-class parents with one or both of money or initiative to get their children into a “good” school, while there was a long tail of poor-quality “comprehensive” schools which in effect had all their more able or prosperous children sucked away elsewhere, which gave rise to a widespread feeling that the system was fundamentally unfair. It was noted that, while about 35% of secondary school pupils enjoyed some degree of non-State support, they accounted for 85% of MPs and a similar proportion of business leaders. To address this, Ms Bannerman announced a package of measures including giving local communities more say over how schools were run, tightening the rules under which selective public schools had to be in "cohorts" with schools of a similar standard of funding and provision, requiring voluntary aided schools to do more to serve poorer pupils from their immediate communities and, most crucially, seeking to bring in common admissions procedures that would include voluntary aided schools offering free places in an area. All too often, even though some free places were available, poorer parents would simply not make the effort to apply for them. Initially, these plans were undoubtedly extremely popular, and the first wave of combined intakes in September 2007 was generally welcomed. However, it remained far from clear how this would actually work to improve standards at the poorer performing schools, and concerns were expressed by some of the voluntary aided schools that it would erode their distinctive ethos. Some Liberal backbenchers argued that excellence was being sacrificed on the altar of equality, but the opposition leadership adopted a low-key “wait and see” approach on this issue while feeling that in the long term it would rebound to their advantage. The first problem that became evident was a rise in discipline problems and expulsions at some of the voluntary-aided schools that had participated in the scheme, and a handful of high-profile schools withdrew from it for the 2009-10 academic year, while the Alexander McKechnie Trust reduced the proportion of combined intake entrants from 20% to 10% (although it must be pointed out a further 15% of pupils from less well-off homes received a fully-funded education after passing aptitude tests). The government wasted little time in bringing in a law to allow civil partnerships between gay and lesbian couples, which had already been permitted in one or two other countries for some years. This officially came into effect on 1 April 2007 and attracted surprisingly little criticism. It is worth noting that the Arransian law also allowed siblings living in the same property to inherit each other’s property without incurring death duties. From the early 1990s, the Navy had introduced full equality between the sexes in all roles apart from combat infantry and submarines, and had enjoyed a good record of success in promoting women to senior positions. Many of these had always been viewed as people too committed to their careers for long-term relationships, and so it was somewhat surprising how many chose to register civil partnerships. The most prominent was Captain Shirley Beaton, the recently-appointed commander of the iconic flying boat squadron, who chose to attend her ceremony in full dress uniform, which pointedly was attended in similar garb by Admirals Leslie and Smillie, the current and previous Admirals of the Fleet. Inevitably one or two Brunswickian comedians seized on this as further confirmation of the old gibe that most Arransian women were lesbians. In the Autumn of 2006, Princess Fiona carried out an official visit to Brunswick which was very well-received and showed her demonstrating a new-found maturity that confirmed she had put her “wild child” days behind her. It had been observed that, because of touring commitments, Alex Morton had rarely been seen at her side, but nevertheless in November she announced that she was expecting another baby, and on 24 May 2007 duly gave birth to a girl who was named Alexandra Margaret Emilia. Both Peter and Alexandra developed into tall, healthy children who seemed to have inherited their father’s thick black hair. However, no further pregnancy occurred, and in the latter part of 2008 there were various reports in the Brunswickian tabloid press that Alex had been having an affair with a female backing singer. These were never really substantiated, but did result in a few shots of Fiona looking “strained”. Apparently, Douglas and Admiral Leslie took Alex to one side and read him the riot act and he, who was a genuinely devout Christian, did reflect on his conduct and turn over a new leaf. There were a number of publicity shots taken in the summer of 2009 showing the pair obviously much happier and more relaxed in each other’s company. Admiral Leslie, who as well as being Commander-in-Chief was also a senior member of the aristocracy, acted as a kind of unofficial court chamberlain, and his daughter Lady Sarah Leslie (b 1978) was Fiona’s chief lady-in-waiting and confidante. Arransia does not have a formal “Remembrance Day”, but on each tenth anniversary of the Armistice in 1949 it has been the custom to carry out a sombre, low-key wreath-laying ceremony in the castle at Whitcastle, which had been subject to a famous siege in 1494 and in the thick of the fighting in 1948. In 2009, with the fleet cruising off the coast of Lower Mumba, this was a particularly charged occasion. It also carried special weight as it would be the last such occasion when many veterans of the Great War would be alive. Edward Douglas and Lorna Bradshaw both laid wreaths, and Admiral Alan Hewitt, the commander of the RNAS, represented the armed forces. It was especially poignant as both Mrs Bradshaw and Admiral Hewitt had been babies in the womb when the original armistice was signed. There was no formal Brunswickian representation, but the pair of preserved Brunswickian and Mayonnaise bombers from 1949 staged a flypast. After abandoning the attempt to retain control of the colony of Lower Mumba, Arransia had tended to take the view that the newly independent country, later renamed as the People’s Republic of Mumbazo, should be left to stew in its own juice. Arransian governments consistently said they would provide reconstruction aid if the government would sign a peace treaty and introduce democratic reforms, but, while this offer was undoubtedly sincere enough, it was never called upon. In 2003, the Presidency passed to one Peter Chitongo (b 1961), who seemed to outdo all his predecessors in both economic mismanagement and the level of oppression while at the same time having a particular knack for winding up the former colonial power. Arransia may not have been in charge of Lower Mumba for over forty years, but Chitongo continued to insist that she was responsible for all his country’s woes. By 2007, the country had fallen victim to hyperinflation, and there were reports of widespread food shortages and the arbitrary execution of Chitongo’s political opponents. Inevitably, he was dubbed “Shitongo” in Arransia. A certain amount of international pressure began to mount for Arransia to “do something” about the situation. As late as June 2008, Athol Barr made a speech in which he forcefully reiterated the long-standing position that the Lower Mumbans had made their own bed and would have to lie in it, and Arransian aid would only be forthcoming if requested. However, the tide was moving against this, and in November of that year, Simon D’Arcy, said when asked the question that he considered Arransia still held some moral responsibility for what was happening in the country. In retrospect, the press in both countries viewed this as something of a turning point, but in reality it seems that the Arransians had accepted the need to take some kind of action some months before this and commenced appropriate planning. On several occasions, Athol Barr made a public offer of Arransian assistance to Lower Mumba, and even expressed a willingness to hold talks with Chitongo without preconditions. Needless to say, all these offers were rebuffed. Somewhat ironically, much of the pressure in Brunswick for Arransia to act came from the left-wing end of the political spectrum. One commentator, however, warned them to be careful what they wished for. It was also noted that the senior Arransian sea admiral was Iain Moncrieffe (b 1952), in person a scholarly man of impeccable politeness, but who had gained notoriety twelve years before as the nemesis of the anti-whaling protesters. In the Spring of 2009, it was clear that various military preparations were taking place, and by the beginning of May the Queen Margaret and a substantial naval force were cruising fifty miles off the coast of Lower Mumba. Chitongo refused all calls for negotiations, and it came as no real surprise that on Ugglesby Head Day, Thursday May 14th, the Arransians staged a meticulously-planned operation in overwhelming force to take control of the country. All significant fighting was over within twelve hours, and any remaining opposition was snuffed out by the following morning. Two Arransian Marines lost their lives, one from enemy fire, one in an accident, and it is estimated that about 40 Lower Mumbans were killed. Chitongo was believed to have been shot by his own soldiers. In the early evening of the 14th, Edward Douglas made what was considered to be a very well-judged TV broadcast in which he explained the rationale behind the operation, congratulated the Arransian forces on the skill and professionalism they had demonstrated and gave due recognition to the contribution of “our Brunswickian friends”, who, while not involved in any actual fighting, had provided eight of their large transport aircraft to allow a quicker build-up of forces. The whole operation had been approved on a bipartisan basis, and Lorna Bradshaw had been fully briefed, but even so she was heard to grumble to her colleagues that, despite the economic slowdown, she would now have little chance of winning the next election now that Douglas had wrapped himself in a flag. There was a certain amount of muttering in the international community about the Arransians taking unilateral action in this way, but since the situation certainly needed to be dealt with, and the Arransians had done so in a decisive and almost surgical manner, it was difficult to complain too strongly. The Rolvians predictably accused them of “reckless neo-colonial adventurism” but even this was little more than going through the motions. In a sense it was little more than an exercise in kicking in an unlocked barn door, but even so many things could potentially have gone wrong, but none did. Predictably, some of the Brunswickian politicians who had been most vocal in demanding that Arransia “do something” then complained about them being “heavy-handed”, but Admiral Leslie in a Brunswickian television interview made the point that every military commander in history tried to make his battles as one-sided as possible, and being heavy-handed was a luxury than in the past had rarely been available to Arransia. A new constitution was drawn up modelled on that used in the Terrapin Islands, and in November a formal ceremony took place, attended by Princess Fiona, to inaugurate the Commonwealth of Lower Mumba. This was pointedly lacking in military ceremonial and heavily featured local tribal dancing. The veteran émigré politician Herbert Serasi (b 1937) became Lower Mumba’s first Chancellor. For many years, he had practised as a patent lawyer in Arransia and was widely accused of boring his opponents into submission. He had certainly had a number of clashes with the interim military governor, Lieut-General Colin Mackenzie. An economic development plan was drawn up involving substantial amounts of Arransian aid, and work had already started on rebuilding the railway into the interior and building a new coal-fired power station at Port Hutchinson. In the late 19th century, Arransia had often been derided for her paltry string of second-rate colonies, but it was notable that in November 2009 every single square mile that had been an Arransian colony in 1900 acknowledged Malcolm VII as its monarch. In September 2009, the Mayonnaise staged a military operation with some similarities to that in Lower Mumba to retake control of their former colony of Kolokami, which was in an inland location north of Lower Mumba, and in fact shared a short frontier with it. This proved much more bloody and protracted, with fighting continuing for eight days, and some 40 Mayonnaise soldiers and over 400 locals losing their lives. There was no real evidence that one was inspired by the other, although possibly the Mayonnaise were emboldened by the Arransian action into grasping a nettle they had been long contemplating. However, inevitably comparisons were drawn between the Arransians’ clinical takeover and the Mayonnaise apparently making a meal of it. In reality, the Mayonnaise had to deal with considerably greater local opposition and also did not have the option of using the sea to bring in troops and supplies, although some of their carrier-borne aircraft were used, at extreme range and violating third-party airspace, to attack targets in the country. Indeed, General McRobbie, the commander of the Royal Marine Corps, gave a very cogent explanation in a TV interview of the difficulties faced by the Mayonnaise. The Légion Etranger played a significant part in this operation and indeed one Arransian-born sergeant received the prestigious Croix de la Guerre for his bravery. A further source of international tension was a growing problem of pirates attacking shipping heading from the main oil-producing areas. In general this affected “flag-of-convenience” ships and was resolved by the payment of a ransom. The frequency of these attacks seemed to increase in 2007-08. In October 2008 the pirates made a serious mistake by seizing a large Arransian-registered bulk LPG carrier. The newish long-range patrol frigate, HMS Rainbow, a warship ideally capable of countering such a threat, with a substantial embarked Marine detachment, was lying in port about 1000 miles away, with most of the crew on shore leave. They were abruptly summoned back, with some complaining of having been dragged out of bars and brothels, and the ship then exceeded her 28-knot design speed by travelling most of the distance at 30 knots. Once within reach of the pirates, they were rapidly dispatched by a combined assault in motor boats and helicopters. 7 of the 14 pirates were killed, and the remainder were taken back to Arransia for trial and sentence. There was a certain amount of disagreement between Arransian and Brunswick over the response to this piracy, with the Arransians taking the view that it could be used as a lever to encourage shipowners not to use flags of convenience, whereas the Brunswickians felt this was being too parochial and possibly acting against the economic interests of both countries. The Arransian action, combined with increasing Arransian, Brunswickian and Skanian naval forces in the area, seemed to deter the pirates for a while and there was a reduction in their activity. However, late in 2009 it seemed to increase again, and in January 2010, the capturing and ransoming of a large third-country LPG carrier caused a line to be crossed, and the Brunswickian military started serious planning for decisive action against the pirates. And, in the last week in February, it came, with a powerful task force centred on the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier BRS Republic carrying out a massive and ruthless operation against the pirate bases that was reckoned to destroy their ability to carry out significant attacks against shipping for years to come. This also included a substantial Arransian squadron under the command of Rear-Admiral James Kirk, centred on the helicopter assault carrier HMS Sealion. A party of Brunswickian Marines were embarked on the Sealion, but they were taken to their destinations by Arransian helicopters. This in fact was the first occasion ever when Brunswickian and Arransian forces had co-operated in a live military operation – the ill-fated sortie to the Middle East in 1973 having really only been a sabre-rattling exercise. The Arransian operation against Lower Mumba the previous year had been fairly obviously signalled in advance (and who, knowing the Arransians, would not have thought it would take place on Ugglesby Head Day?) but this achieved complete strategic and tactical surprise. Much Arransian self-satisfaction resulted from the fact that the veteran R-16 flying boats had been called upon, as the location meant that it was difficult to provide any long-distance air surveillance. Three aircraft of No. 2 Squadron, as in 1997, made a forward deployment to a sheltered bay, using the same RFA vessel as a depot ship, and made valuable reconnaissance flights, plus, on the day of the action, succeeding in sinking a pirate launch by cannon fire. When Simon D’Arcy, in his TV broadcast, said that he wished to recognise the involvement of the flying boat squadron, there was unsurprisingly much guffawing in Arransian pubs. It is also understood that an Arransian special forces detachment managed to assassinate one of the key pirate leaders. D’Arcy, to be fair, was unstinting in his praise of the contribution of “our Arransian friends”. In terms of the alliance, everything went entirely smoothly, and this action did much to cement cordial relations between the two countries’ armed forces. The Brunswickian Marines were particularly complimentary about how well they had been fed aboard the Sealion. Late in the year, after his re-election, Simon D’Arcy, as part of a visit to Arransia, made a brief call to the flying boat squadron at Skelwick, and received a very warm welcome, and several complimentary bottles of the town’s eponymous and highly-regarded malt whisky. He was also famously pictured holding one of the squadron cats, and was also formally presented with a kitten (which ended up with his daughter’s family). As the 2010 general election approached, it was widely felt that Douglas had presided over Arransia’s most successful ever Labour government, or at least the best since Rostron’s first administration. Arransia had coped resiliently with the world economic downturn, difficult defence and foreign policy issues had been addressed, there had been a substantial investment in improved road and rail transport, and a number of enlightened social reforms had been carried out. As usual, the election was held at the end of May, with the first round on Friday 21st, and the second a week later. Douglas and Lorna Bradshaw staged a TV debate which was condemned as even duller than their exchange in 2006 and called some to question whether such events were worthwhile. The general expectation was of a strong swing to Labour, but in the event this was more subdued than expected. Labour did win some seats from the Liberals, but the Liberals also managed to oust some Independents, notably recapturing the West Edirn seat of Golcar, and persuaded the Conservative-minded independent Oliver Massey from Hanwold to throw in his lot with them. They also gained Teversal & West Holburn with a majority of over 1,000, and some of the second-round results showed a swing back to the Liberals from the first-round position. The number of seats reverted to the standard 296, of which Labour gained 151, the Liberals 140 and Independents 5, giving an overall majority of 6, which in Arransian terms was comfortable but not overwhelming. This was in marked contrast to Simon D’Arcy being re-elected in Brunswick later than year with over 60% of the popular vote, and Douglas probably found the comparison a touch galling. However, it has typically been a feature of Arransian politics that, unless a party has performed particularly poorly, the electorate see balance as desirable and are not inclined to punish them too harshly, and it was relatively unusual for a governing party to be re-elected with an increased majority. Lorna Bradshaw, who would be 61 later in the year, stood down as Liberal leader after the summer and was replaced by Peter Hough (b 1957), who had been Transport Minister in her administration and had had the somewhat thankless task of shadowing Stuart Logan for the past four years. Although a quietly-spoken individual, Hough was a more combative character with a sly sense of humour, and there was an expectation that politics would become a little less decorous. Hough hailed from, and represented, the Bucklow town of Bainbridge and unlike Douglas and Bradshaw, was a definite “southerner”.
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