Arransian Political History6. 1990-1998 In the period after 1990, Arransia has managed to avoid any major political crises of the kind that it suffered in the twenty years between 1967 and 1987. The country has enjoyed a period of sustained economic growth and the differences between the two major political parties have tended to diminish to the point that it is now more a matter of emphasis rather than any kind of ideological gulf. However, the country has had to respond to new concerns about the environment, and growing prosperity was accompanied by soul-searching as to whether the country was sacrificing its distinctive character. The Liberals’ 1990 general election victory resulted more from Labour being discredited over the coal crisis than from any great enthusiasm for the Liberals. Robert Knox (b 1935), the new Chancellor, was a quietly-spoken, rather donnish man who seemed to personify a desire for a calmer and more thoughtful approach to politics. He was Arransia’s first and so far only Jewish Chancellor, although his family had lived in the country for four generations and were thoroughly assimilated. It was something that he tended to downplay and indeed he was known to enjoy the occasional pork pie. His ministerial team was a mixture of old and new. Adam Sinclair (b 1932), the former Chancellor, now fully recovered, became Defence Minister, while the veteran Martin Fogarty (1926-2002) returned to the Transport portfolio. Keith Wardle (b 1944), who had done much to undermine the Labour government over the coal crisis, became Finance Minister, while Home Affairs went to Jenny Porter (b 1943), who at this point was being spoken of as potentially Arransia’s first female Chancellor. Daniel Clarkson (b 1934) returned to the Foreign Ministry which he had held in 1985 and 1986. There was a widespread expectation that, with union militancy neutralised, the new government would be able to make rapid progress to restore Arransia’s economic competitiveness. However, the early 1990s were a time of a mild international recession, and economic growth remained subdued. Keith Wardle, although he had been a very effective critic of the Labour government, proved less successful in office and appeared to take an over-theoretical approach. There continued to be an undercurrent of trade union dissent, with a feeling that the government was eroding Arransia’s economic independence to little visible effect. In late 1993, Knox carried out a substantial reshuffle of his government. Wardle was replaced by Lorna Bradshaw (b 1949) who had been a junior Finance minister under Knox in the early 1980s and, while a professional economist by training, was seen as having a more pragmatic approach. At the same time, Jenny Porter was replaced as Home Affairs Minister by the more tough-minded Andrew Gemmill (b 1945). This stemmed from a dispute in the government over how to handle the growing use of Ecstasy, with Porter arguing that it was important not to repeat the mistakes of the 1960s while Gemmill and others supported a stricter approach. Both Wardle and Porter returned to the back benches but Porter was restored to office as Minister of Culture after the 1994 general election, while Wardle has developed a growing reputation as an innovative economic thinker. After 1993 the international economy showed a distinct upturn, and this undoubtedly helped Lorna Bradshaw develop a reputation as one of Arransia’s most successful post-war Finance Ministers. In the 1994-98 period, economic growth averaged more than 3% a year, and in 1997 annual new car sales reached a record 283,000. In 1996 she was able to cut the top rate of income tax from 40% to 30%, which before too long was actually producing more revenue. As her husband was a well-paid senior partner in one of Arransia’s major accountancy firms some critics felt she had a strong personal interest in this decision. Although in effect it had been the policy of Arransian Finance Ministers throughout most of the post-war period, she was the first to articulate explicitly that the country’s prosperity would be better served by integrating its economy more closely with that of Brunswick rather than by engaging in open competition. In the early 1980s, the government had acted to reduce its stake in some of Arransia’s major industrial companies, but during this period there was a more concerted policy to continue this by means of public share offers, although the government always retained a significant holding and a veto on any foreign takeover. There were significant public sales of shares in Drummonds, the national airline, Sommersby Steel, the chemical company Mayer McKechnie, the Arransian National Oil Company and, most spectacularly, Arransian Telecommunications in 1995. The latter was riding high as a result of the development of mobile telephony, and the flotation made both the government and private investors a lot of money. During the late 1990s AT continued to enjoy a near-monopoly and was able to make what many felt were somewhat obscene profits. In 1998 its Managing Director, the perhaps unfortunately named Peter Blood (b 1943), attracted much criticism for receiving a remuneration package, including bonuses, in excess of half a million dollars. Nevertheless, this prosperity certainly filtered through to ordinary people, and it was in this period that, for the first time since the war, people began making comparisons between living standards in Brunswick and Arransia that weren’t entirely in Brunswick’s favour. In 1997 a Brunswickian Sunday newspaper published a shock exposé that revealed that some categories of worker in Arransia were actually slightly better off than their Brunswickian counterparts. True, this involved a number of assumptions and certainly did not apply across the economy, but it was an indication that Arransia could no longer be dismissed as a poor relation. People also began to point out that certain things seemed to work rather better in Arransia – in particular that the Arransian railways managed to organise an efficient wagonload freight system, and that Arransia’s cities boasted impressive, well-used and surprisingly modern tramway networks. This last point was brought home strongly in 1996 when Arransia hosted the regional football championships for Sabrantia and Beruna. Many visitors expected to find a shabby, run-down country pockmarked by post-industrial dereliction, and were surprised and impressed by Arransia’s busy, thriving (if somewhat higgledy-piggledy) cities with sleek modern trams gliding through clean, smart streets. Arransia had never been known as a major football power, but even so managed to reach the semi-finals where they were defeated on penalties by Colmar, who went on to lose 3-2 to Brunswick in what was regarded as one of the best finals ever seen in a major international championship. Needless to say, most Arransians were cheering for Colmar, but the Brunswickian players noted how gracious Queen Imogen was in presenting them with the trophy. Many of the tabloid newspapers, however, were more interested in the 23-year-old Princess Fiona, who had already gained a reputation for being somewhat “difficult”, sitting through the proceedings looking terminally bored and listening to a Walkman. Daniel Clarkson, the Foreign Minister, continued the work done by Rankine and Weir in developing bilateral trade relationships and giving out a limited amount of foreign aid. He also worked to give a higher profile to the official Commission of the Sabrantian Customs Union. However, he had to deal with a number of novel foreign relations issues. In 1991 Orestina made some veiled threats to annex Fraser Island, a small and rather unproductive Arransian colony in the Southern Ocean. Clarkson pointed out that Arransia had occupied the territory for sixty years before Orestina gained her independence from Esparta, and this was accepted by the League of Nations. An Arransian naval squadron including the aircraft carrier Queen Margaret was sent to the Southern Ocean as a deterrent, and Arransia despatched four of her B-39 bombers to the Brunswickian possession of Trinity Island, from where they could have attacked the Orestinian mainland. This action was widely applauded in Brunswick, who had a long record of bad blood with Orestina on the football field and also still resented Orestina being sympathetic to Mayenne during the Great War. The threats rapidly vanished into thin air, but the Arransians have continued to maintain a sufficiently strong detachment of Marines there to make the Orestians think twice about it. Ironically, Clarkson and Knox recognised only too clearly that Fraser Island was of negligible economic or strategic value and later in the 1990s made unsuccessful attempts to negotiate a face-saving leaseback deal with Orestina. Although somewhat reduced from its heyday in the 1950s, Arransia still had a much larger merchant fleet per head of population than any other developed country, and for many years had been concerned about the growth of “flag of convenience” shipping which they felt was taking business away by allowing lax standards of safety and manning. This was an issue over which they had never managed to drum up much enthusiasm amongst other countries, although since the 1980 ferry disaster which led to the authorisation of the Esk Suspension Bridge, the Arransians had carried out very rigorous inspections of any flag of convenience ships using their own ports. In 1992 they announced they would be extending this right throughout their 200-mile economic interest zone, and in May of that year a foreign-registered bulk carrier with a cargo of nitrates was apprehended by the Navy and ordered into the Till estuary at Lemingore for inspection. This action was widely condemned as high-handed, especially by Brunswick, as the ship had been chartered by a Brunswickian company, but the Arransians found a long list of safety violations, and the ship eventually remained in the Till for three years during lengthy legal proceedings. The Arransians were, however, applauded by the Brunswickian seamen’s union. Whether this action achieved very much in the long run is debateable, but afterwards it was noticeable that certain foreign ships very carefully kept to the Mayonnaise side while making their passage through the Sleeve. How the Arransians eventually made major inroads into this problem is dealt with in the 1998-2006 chapter. After 1990, Cold War tensions eroded and it became clear that the world had entered into a new era where war between Great Powers was highly unlikely, but more limited conflicts would possibly be more widespread. This obviously led countries to re-evaluate their defence requirements. In Arransia’s case it involved recasting the role of her armed forces within the alliance with Brunswick to concentrate more explicitly on amphibious operations and providing a rapid-reaction capability. This was in line with what the Arransians found congenial and seemed to work well, although some Arransian politicians did express concerns that in a genuine conflict situation the Brunswickians might expect them to undertake missions they felt were unacceptably risky for their own forces. The most obvious manifestation of this policy was the helicopter assault ship HMS Sealion, which entered service in 1997. At 17,000 tons, she was the largest warship to be completed in Arransia since the early 1920s, and had the appearance of a small aircraft carrier, although not capable of operating fixed-wing aircraft. Her purpose was to be able to carry up to 800 Marines and their equipment and put them ashore either by helicopter or landing craft. When she was refitted in the early 1980s, the intention was that the aircraft carrier Queen Margaret would have a maximum of another twenty years of service life. This meant that the question of a replacement should have been considered during the 1990s. However, the cost of this was so daunting – it would by a huge margin have been the largest single defence project in Arransia’s history – that politicians of both parties seemed to shy away from it, apparently hoping that somebody else would eventually have to deal with it. The issue therefore became in effect the elephant in the living room of Arransian politics – everyone knew it was there, but nobody wanted to talk about it. The ship had come to be regarded as a national talisman, and the prospect of her being scrapped without some form of replacement was unthinkable, but despite the Arransians’ legendary dedication to keeping ageing hardware operational it had to be accepted that she could not remain in service indefinitely. Two major procurement decisions were taken in the 1990s which made this situation even stranger. First, a pair of new and extremely expensive guided-missile destroyers, HMS Brodie and HMS Scullion, were ordered, entering service in 2000 and 2001. These, primarily intended for anti-aircraft defence, would be rather pointless without a carrier to protect. Two of the existing four destroyers were sold to Barrozo, but the remaining pair, HMS Marske and HMS Ince, dating back to the late 1960s, continued in service, resulting in a somewhat unbalanced squadron. Then, in the last days of the 1994-98 government, Adam Sinclair ordered two squadrons of new state-of-the-art Brunswickian F-17 fighters to replace the Queen Margaret’s existing fighter force. The planes did need replacing, but the decision could have been deferred a few years. This then left the succeeding government having to spend $15 million on further alterations to the carrier in 2001-02 to adapt her to operate the new planes, at a time when she was supposedly life-expired. When asked about this after his retirement, Sinclair just smiled and said “well, you have to take one thing at a time, don’t you.” In 1994, full equality between men and women was introduced in all branches of the armed forces apart from the submarine service and front-line combat troops in the Marines. This produced a suprising wave of unashamedly conservative opposition, but it was strongly supported by the then Admiral of the Fleet Colin Smillie (b 1939), a bluff, no-nonsense figure who could hardly be regarded as a closet feminist. Indeed Arransia has enjoyed considerable success in promoting women to senior positions in the seagoing navy and the RNAS. Patrick Scullion died in April 1995 at the age of 96. Although not engaged in front-line politics since 1969, he had been active on the lecture circuit until well into his 80s and retained all his mental faculties until the end. Indeed he had continued driving up to a couple of months before his death. He was accorded the rare privilege of a formal state funeral, the only non-royal Arransian to receive one in the post-war era. There was an attempt by some demonstrators to disrupt this over grievances dating back to 1968, but in general it passed off smoothly and many foreign observers commented that the Arransians did this kind of thing rather well. Adam Sinclair delivered a very moving eulogy on behalf of the government. After the service in St Mary’s Cathedral in Danby, his body was taken by the destroyer HMS Ince down the Esk and along the coast to Stackpole in Marchwood where he was laid to rest in the town’s churchyard. George Rostron, Scullion’s great rival, pointedly remarked that he didn’t want any of that fuss when he died, to which the now elderly but ever-sardonic Alec Rankine replied “what makes him think he would have got it anyway?” In the transport field, Knox’s first term saw a very substantial mileage of new Expressway schemes approved, including the A5 between Hebburn and Tetney, the A4 Wrangle Bypass, the A3 from Ince to the Brunswick border and the A6 southern bypass of Stainton. The latter gave Stainton a complete Expressway ringroad and also included a free-flowing junction with the A1 Expressway of unprecedented complexity for Arransia, which was rapidly dubbed “Arransia’s Spaghetti Junction,” although Brunswick had many interchanges that surpassed it. These projects were followed in the second term by the A3 link from Ince to Bainbridge, which included a spectacular 1,820-foot cable-stayed bridge over the Barrow estuary at Lawrenny. This was not completed until 2003, but the elegant Lawrenny Bridge rapidly became a symbol of modernity and progress in Arransia. This almost completed the Expressway link between Danby and the Tri-Cities in Brunswick, the only unimproved section remaining being the notorious “Porcupine Gap” between Bainbridge and Sandscale. This period also saw a considerable number of small-scale A-road bypasses of towns and cities authorised, and it seemed that the government were at last taking serious steps to redress the perceived inferiority of Arransia’s road network compared with that of Brunswick. Despite planning controls, these bypasses often attracted rashes of retail and light industrial development which were seen as unwelcome eyesores. Public transport did not miss out either, as it was in this period that the Methuen government’s measures to promote tram and bus replacement came to fruition, with many towns and cities able to replace utilitarian 1950s vehicles with sleek modern equivalents, and all the major tramway systems acquiring articulated cars. Hebburn, and to a limited extent also Howick and Stainton, operate rather fearsome articulated double-deckers, although these could not be adopted in Danby due to its extensive city-centre tram tunnels. 1995 saw the introduction of high speed rail passenger services in a slightly unexpected location. Brunswick had promoted the electrification of the main line between Ynysforgan and Ormsby, which had the benefit of opening up the port of Ince to Brunswickian imports and exports. This provided a slightly shorter and more easily graded route from Ynysforgan to the Tri-Cities than the existing line staying entirely within Brunswick, and began to be used by several through expresses. The line voltage all the way from Gautby to Southerby has been converted to the Brunswickian 25 kv AC standard, and through trains are now permitted to reach speeds of 125 mph in places. On secondary rail lines, a new class of modern diesel multiple units was introduced to replace older locomotive hauled trains, which were notably spacious and comfortable and now handle most passenger working on non-electrified sections. Because of its cool climate, Arransia does not have air-conditioned trains apart from on the main inter-city routes. Arransia also had to address a variety of environmental issues, the first of which concerned the country’s power stations. The northern half of Arransia contained abundant coal reserves and, while one nuclear power station had been built, the country largely relied on coal for power generation. The crowning glory of this was the “Three Sisters” – the three giant power stations on the northern side of the Laithby Marishes between Whitcastle and Stainton – Aizleby Moss, Harrock Bridge and Dunnershaw – which together produced almost 50% of Arransia’s electricity. Most Arransians would have regarded these as impressive symbols of the country’s industrial might, but in the late 1980s and early 1990s there were increasing complaints from the countries in the path of the prevailing wind – northern Mayenne, Colmar and Skania – that their emissions were causing “acid rain” and widespread despoliation of forests. This was not helped by the relatively low quality and high sulphur content of Arransia’s coal. The government set up an official inquiry into this issue which grudgingly admitted that there might be some truth in these claims and recommended the installation of additional pollution control measures. Behind the scenes, Knox, who represented a Stainton constituency and did not want pollution rained down on his electors, told APC, the power generation body, to make sure it was properly addressed. The result was that in the 1995-2000 period, all three power stations were fitted with state-of-the-art emission scrubbing and flue gas desulphurisation equipment that largely eliminated the problem. The work was done by Arransian companies who became world leaders in the technology. This resulted in a 5% reduction in the power stations’ output, but this was compensated for by the complete renewal of the turbines at Harrock Bridge. Unfortunately, many Arransians still talk in terms of cheerfully burning the country’s coal and having little concern for the wider effects, which tends to underplay the thoroughness of the work that was done. This period also saw the first of the wave of road protests that have been an ongoing problem in Arransia in recent times. Behind closed doors, this is the issue more than any other that makes Arransian ministers spit blood. In comparison with Brunswick, in the post-war era Arransia had deliberately invested more in railways and public transport, and not developed her road network to anything like the same extent, a policy that to many in the 1990s appeared environmentally responsible. However, the Arransians recognised the economic importance of an efficient road system, and had continued to steadily expand the Expressway network when funds permitted, whereas by the 1990s Brunswick’s Trunkway system was largely complete. By the 1990s, Arransia was building more road per head of population than Brunswick, and this meant that the burgeoning anti-road movement began to target the country, something that was felt to be particularly unfair by Arransian politicians, given that many of the activists hailed from Brunswick, and Brunswick had built many far more environmentally destructive roads in the 1960s. The first major clashes came in the early 1990s over the A3 Expressway between Ince and Hobsett which ran through some lush farmland and rare habitats in the south of Marchwood. The designers made strenuous efforts to minimise the environmental impact of the road, but this was not enough for the protesters, and there were a number of clashes with the police in 1992 and 1993. Martin Fogarty, the Transport Minister, took a very strong line on this and it is thought that Jenny Porter’s reluctance to be too confrontational was one of the reasons behind her being relieved of the Home Affairs portfolio in the Autumn of 1993. Arransia’s biggest conflict with environmentalists came over the issue of commercial whaling. Historically, Brunswick, Arransia and Skania had all engaged in large-scale whaling in the Southern Hemisphere, but by the mid-1990s the Arransians were the only ones still involved, with whaling operations based on the northern fishing port of Golsingby. It was a hard trade, and a declining one, but still potentially lucrative. The whalers were also known for being a very tough and hard-bitten community who would stand no nonsense from anybody. In the autumn of 1997, mainly Brunswickian animal activists staged a major protest to attempt to prevent the whaling fleet leaving Golsingby. This resulted in a pitched battle which the police were unable to stop, and some of the protesters ended up being badly beaten by the whalers, which provoked a minor diplomatic incident, an episode that reflected badly on both countries. The protesters went on to attempt to disrupt the whaling operations in the Southern Ocean, and the Arransian Navy despatched the frigate HMS Roebuck and a pair of flying boats to help maintain order. The involvement of the elderly and even more antiquated-looking flying boats provoked much smirking amongst foreign onlookers, and indeed one Brunswickian newspaper published an editorial that predicted disaster and embarrassment for the Arransian intervention – something that is still displayed with glee in harbourside pubs throughout Northern Arransia. However, in reality the flying boats were ideally suited to remote operations in an area with no paved runways, and the Arransian force was able with little difficulty to locate, board and capture the protesters’ vessel. The television pictures of the Antarctic summer also showed images of startling beauty and incredibly clear light. The Arransian commander, Captain Iain Moncrieffe (b 1952) made the point that the naval presence was as much to protect the protesters as to prevent disruption of whaling. He was a very tall man who had to adopt a continually stooped posture in the confined spaces of the frigate, and conveyed a somewhat detached and resigned air very much at variance from the archetypal gung-ho image of the naval captain. Indeed he drew many plaudits for his cool handling of this difficult situation and is now (2006) a full Admiral and the commander of Arransia’s seagoing fleet. The protesters were brought back to Arransia and tried and convicted for “piracy on the high seas” which was a wholly valid charge in Arransian law, but not one they ever expected to face. After conviction, they were deported rather than being required to serve prison sentences, but the Arransians have relentlessly pursued the anti-whaling campaigners through the courts of various countries to recover the costs of the naval operation, which has largely deterred any further organised opposition. Some liberal middle-class Arransians found the whaling trade somewhat distasteful, but on the other hand it was widely regarded in the country as something quintessentially Arransian, a maritime activity requiring courage, enterprise and a large helping of bloodymindedness. However, the government were concerned that it tarnished Arransia’s international image. The Liberal government of the early 1980s had done little to reverse Labour’s education reforms of the 1970s. However, there was a growing concern that educational standards were falling and the County education authorities, especially those that had adopted comprehensive schooling, were delivering a lacklustre, one-size-fits-all education that was not appropriate for modern needs. Andrew Gemmill was Education Minister from 1990 to 1993 and took a number of steps to address this – scrapping the official recommendation to adopt a comprehensive model, allowing more public support for private and charitable schools, and relaxing the rules requiring selective schools to be in a “cohort” with other schools offering a broadly similar level of funding to all pupils. The biggest change was to allow County schools to opt out of the system and become “Charter Schools” with funding direct from central government. This was widely condemned by Labour as divisive, and in fact the number who took up the option was limited, partly because of fears that Labour would abolish it if it gained power. Nevertheless, it was clear that the Liberals wanted to encourage a more varied and pluralistic education system, and this was something that struck a chord with many parents. Education remained one of the most contentious issues in Arransian politics. In the late 1980s, Brunswick introduced satellite television which, unlike terrestrial broadcasts, could easily be received in Arransia. Not surprisingly, satellite dishes began to spread rapidly through Arransian residential areas and by 1998 about 25% of households had satellite TV. This was widely criticised at the time as “beaming a torrent of filth and rubbish into Arransian homes”, but in fact the the satellite programming was often more intelligent and innovative than that on terrestrial television. In later years, the satellite broadcaster BSB was to introduce specificially Arransian-themed channels and to create a subsidiary to run them with participation from Arransian investors, but in the 1990s the output had a very Brunswickian flavour. The largest area of concern was over the rights for major sporting events being bought up for satellite TV. These had been traditionally been sold very cheaply, but the sporting authorities understandably wanted to bring in more funding. Knox’s government was reluctant to do anything about this, and this is thought to be one of the factors that contributed to their defeat in the 1998 election. Arransia had passed legislation in the early 1960s to progressively introduce metric measurements, and from 1972 all packaged goods had had to give metric quantities equal prominence to traditional (“SCM”) ones. However, this had never met with much enthusiasm, and no government had ever pursued legislation to eliminate the use of SCM, let alone to contemplate the expensive task of replacing road signs. The fact that Brunswick had converted all measurement to the metric system undoubtedly had something to do with this. In the early 1990s the government carried out a consultation on the issue and in 1992 passed a Weights & Measures Act that, while it confirmed that metric was the official system of measurement in Arransia, permitted the voluntary indefinite use of SCM measures for everyday purposes, with metric equivalents only needing to be declared in small print. This was widely felt to be a very sensible move, and effectively nothing is now sold to the general public in Arransia in metric quantities. Even imported beers and wines are packaged in pints and fluid ounces for the Arransian market, despite the fact this is not a legal requirement. Many Arransian schoolchildren are now only taught metric measures in secondary school and they are widely referred to as “scientific measures”. Interestingly, in the 1970s, petrol in Arransia was normally advertised with a price per gallon, but dispensed in litres from the first generation of electronic pumps manufactured in Brunswick. However, modern pumps allow the simultaneous display of a gallons figure. John Methuen, who was in any case 65 years old, retired as Labour leader shortly after the 1990 election defeat, and was replaced by Gordon Bell (b 1943). Bell was an articulate and witty man who made a point of taking an interest in cultural trends when the government all too often seemed preoccupied by economics and defence. In 1994 he managed to reduce the government’s majority from 18 to 6, making it clear that normal service of two-party politics had been restored. During Knox’s second term, the Liberals for a long time enjoyed a strong lead in the opinion polls, but by 1997 this began to erode as the country began to feel that increasing prosperity might have its downside. Bell also successfully managed to paint the Liberals as the defenders of the whaling industry, which played well with the urban middle classes. Then, in early 1998, the Trade and Industry Minister, Jonathan Grier (b 1941) was forced to resign after a somewhat unsavoury scandal involving call-girls and bribes from a Mayonnaise cement company. This caused particular shock as Arransian politicians of both parties had a fairly good record of avoiding financial or sexual sleaze. This further undermined the government and despite record levels of household incomes, in the May 1998 General Election Bell managed to defeat Knox and gain a slender overall majority of 4 seats. The margin of first preferences in the popular vote was less than 100,000. Bell was pledged to spread Arransia’s wealth more fairly while upholding her cultural identity and pursuing a less unilateralist foreign policy.
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