Arransian Political History5. 1981-1990 The Liberal Adam Sinclair (b 1932) took office as Chancellor of Arransia in May 1981, having defeated Labour convincingly if not overwhelmingly, with an overall majority of 6. His ministerial team showed a mixture of the familiar and the new. Alec Rankine (1915-2002) returned as Foreign Minister, while Martin Fogarty (b 1926), the former party leader, chose to return to his speciality of Transport. The Finance Minister was the calm, intellectual Robert Knox (b 1935), and Daniel Clarkson (b 1934), whom Sinclair had defeated in the leadership contest, took the Home Affairs portfolio. Sinclair, a former Royal Marine Commando officer, was handsome, articulate, humorous and irreverent, a strong contrast to the older generation of Arransian politicans, and made the ageing Geoorge Rostron and his successor the rather dour John Methuen (1925-2004) seem very dull indeed. There was, however, some feeling that Sinclair was a political lightweight lacking real intellectual depth, and also that his campaign themes had been as much Conservative as Liberal. There was some criticism that Sinclair’s original cabinet of 1981 did not include any women, but this was rectified the following year by the appointment of the glamorous Jenny Porter (b 1943) as Minister of Culture. She represented a strong contrast with battleaxes of the past such as Louise Kirkpatrick and Eileen Donaldson and was widely described as “the thinking man’s crumpet.” The first priority for the government was enhancing Arransia’s economic competitiveness. The 1970s had been a very difficult decade for all countries, but it was clear that Arransia had slipped behind Brunswick and needed some targeted economic stimulation. Knox was a cautious man not given to doing anything rash, but he pursued a policy of gently lowering tariff barriers while at the same time reducing government stakes in key industries. This was not spectacular, but over time it did have the effect of freeing up the economy and getting things moving again. Annual GDP growth had only averaged 1.5% in the 1977-80 period, but from 1981-84 it was not far short of 3%. This also had the benefit of allowing some reduction in personal taxation rates without needing to cut back on public expenditure. In 1982, Knox reduced the top rate of income tax from 50% to 40%, which seemed something of a gamble, but before too long actually brought in more revenue. The economic problems of the 1970s had forced many traditional Arransian industries to confront the prospect of adapting or going to the wall, and there had been an improvement in competitiveness, which Knox now supporting by giving companies much more generous research and development tax credits, which proved particularly useful in the pharmaceutical industry. However, one symbolic casualty was the Grimshaws shipyard in Gosforth which was allowed to close in 1984, the site now being occupied by the Gosforth coal export terminal. As the four remaining major shipyards competed internationally, the government was happy for them to form a rather obvious cartel to carry out joint marketing and share out the available work between them. During the Great War, both Arransia and Brunswick had confiscated most businesses within their borders belonging to companies from the other side, and this was recognised by the Treaty of Ynysforgan, as otherwise it would have led to endless lawsuits. Since the war, Brunswickian companies had acquired a large number of Arransian businesses in sectors such as retail, insurance, electricals and fuel distribution. Arransia had deliberately prevented foreign takeovers of the “crown jewels” of her economy, but even so, by the mid-1980s, about 10% of the private-sector workforce worked for Brunswickian employers. In contrast, Arransian investment in Brunswick was largely limited to small sales operations. However, during the 1980s, sharp-eyed Arransian entrepreneurs started spotting opportunities to take over undervalued Brunswickian businesses in “rustbelt” industries such as engineering and bulk chemicals, which were regarded as deeply unfashionable by the Brunswickian stock market. The days of the Arransian takeover of the giant chemical complex at Elko were still in the future, but even so by the end of the 1980s, over 100,000 Brunswickians worked for Arransian companies. Some people found this hard to take, seeing it as a perverse reversal of the outcome of the Great War, but the Arransians tended to adopt an informal, no-bullshit approach to management and generally managed to win over their workforces. A measure of rising prosperity was the fact that in 1983 domestic car sales exceeded 250,000 for the first time, with Arransia’s much-criticised protected domestic car industry continuing to act as a major engine of growth in the economy. Ironically, in 1982, AMC introduced the mid-range 75 model which had been designed in Brunswick just before the oil crisis and was actually larger than its contemporary Brunswickian equivalent. Many Arransian car buyers, although often plumping for the underpowered 1.3 litre version, regarded this as a sign of both themselves and their country having arrived. As Foreign Minister, Rankine took a more pro-active approach than his predecessor McAllister, and visited many of Arransia’s major trading partners to renegotiate bilateral trade agreements, which he did with considerable success. It might be thought that the hard-faced Rankine was not the ideal man for this task, but in fact the other countries usually appreciated a bit of straight talking and saw it as a sign of Arransian strength that he made no attempt to soft-soap them. After the slump of the 1970s there was a rising demand for new capital equipment, and Arransia’s manufacturing industries, which had been compelled to modernise by economic pressures, were in a good position to supply this. Arransia also eclipsed Brunswick during this period to become the free world’s leading supplier of new-build warships. Particular success was had with the Southern Hemisphere country of Barrozo, which stood in a similar position to her larger neighbour Orestina as Arransia did to Brunswick. Favourable terms were obtained to supply Barrozo’s high-quality iron ore to Arransia’s steelworks, and Arransia successfully refitted her elderly ex-Brunswickian aircraft carrier, the Almirante Bertendona, which ironically was the ship that had briefly served in the Arransian navy in the early 1950s as the Heron. The defence sphere was dominated by the re-entry into service of the rebuilt aircraft carrier Queen Margaret in the Autumn of 1982. Even the Brunswickians, who had initially been very sceptical about the project, had to admit that the Arransians had done a good job of it, and the finished result was a very impressive ship, which was a tribute to Arransian shipbuilding and also – it must be said – to Arransian bloodymindedness. It was to no avail that Methuen pointed out that the project had been authorised under Labour, as Sinclair was quick to respond that they had done so extremely grudgingly. The Navy allowed TV crews to make a documentary series about the ship’s return to service and the flying-on of the aircraft, which brought them much good publicity, and boosted recruitment. In the 1980s it seemed every small boy in Arransia wanted to be a carrier pilot (and not a few small girls, too, as female entry to RNAS aircrew had been permitted from 1976, and the first trickle were starting to come through). The government also approved the construction of the Marchwood class of anti-submarine frigates to replace the ageing ex-Brunswickian River class, and gave the go-ahead for three new nuclear hunter-killer submarines, rather than giving the existing ones a mid-life update, as technology in this field had moved on very quickly. Less success was had with the attempt to develop a home-made main battle tank, which eventually ended in failure. Martin Fogarty wasted little time in approving a new batch of Expressway schemes which covered more mileage than the whole of the approvals in the twelve years of Labour government. Most notable was three sections of the A5 in Teviot and western Pentmark, an area of the country containing many safe Liberal seats that had so far seen no Expressway investment. The railways benefited from a number of new electric locomotives that had been ordered under the previous administration and had a less boxy appearance than those they replaced. At first, Fogarty tried to press ANR to set a date for the total eradication of steam, but by the mid-1980s it became clear that the remaining steam traction was proving a substantial tourist draw and should not be removed lightly. In social policy, perhaps remembering the experience of the 1970s the government seemed prepared to let sleeping dogs lie. They took a less centralising approach to education, allowing the counties more flexibility in policy. There was a backlash against some of the modern educational theories which seemed to have failed in delivering better results, and indeed academic performance did show a small increase. Local commercial radio stations were permitted for the first time, although these have never been hugely successful in Arransia and are widely criticised for their dull and predictable output. The major ongoing problem for the government was the continued high level of industrial unrest. Scarcely a month went by without some significant group of workers being on strike. The unions felt uneasy about the policy of economic liberalisation, and also at the same time wanted a greater share of the country’s obviously growing prosperity. They did not seem to appreciate that these two points were somewhat contradictory. Arransian unions had never enjoyed the legal privileges that their British counterparts had for many years (for example, secret strike ballots had always been compulsory), and the government made some moves to tighten the rules, in particular by severely restricting secondary picketing. However, this only seemed to lead to a shift from official to unofficial strikes (known in Arransia as “maverick strikes”, as the Wildcat is a national emblem). In general the government or the employers fudged the outcome of these disputes rather than digging in for a long battle, but it was clear there was unfinished business there which would need to be addressed. Nevertheless, in the 1985 general election campaign the government were able to point to an impressive record of economic success at home, enhancement of defence capabilities, infrastructure development and regained overseas prestige. They produced a well-known (and often later mocked) political broadcast using the slogan “It’s morning in Arransia” reflecting the mood of optimism in the country. Continued industrial unrest was perhaps the fly in the ointment but Sinclair and his ministers exuded confidence that this was something they would be able to deal with. They made it clear that they would continue on the path of economic liberalisation and many of the remaining barriers to competitiveness would need to be seriously addressed. The result was an increase in the government’s overall majority from 6 to 16, and an even stronger underlying shift in votes. This was only the second time in postwar Arransia that an incumbent government had increased its majority. Sinclair largely retained the same set of ministers, although Rankine chose this moment to retire, being replaced as Foreign Minister by Clarkson, with the position of Home Affairs Minister going to Andrew Hazledine (b 1929). All the expectations of the new government were quickly dashed by the onset of the notorious coal crisis, which is described in more detail here. Although Arransia’s coal mines were privately owned, the wages paid to miners, and the domestic selling price of coal, were governed by the National Mining Financial Framework. Successive governments had tended to leave this alone in the interests of a quiet life, with the result that coal production costs had become increasingly uncompetitive, and in fact by 1985 the Arransian Power Corporation could have imported coal for $2 a tonne less than they were paying for it domestically. To address this, the government proposed major changes to the NMFF, including a significant shift to production-related bonuses. This had the potential to significantly increase miners’ earnings, but the leader of the miners’ union, the combative Danny McArthur (1934-96) flatly refused to contemplate the idea, demanding instead an across-the-board 15% pay rise combined with a reduction in the working week. After an uneasy winter during which the government seemed to make little progress on anything, by mid-May, the miners were on strike. Following the winter, coal stocks at power stations were low, and within a month some power cuts started to be imposed. Arransia did not share an electricity grid with Brunswick, and the ability to import power directly was limited. Widespread secondary picketing made the physical import of coal by sea or across the border virtually impossible, and General Thomas McCulloch (b 1931), the C-in-C of the Marine Corps, advised the government that if his men were asked to use force to ensure coal deliveries, they would probably mutiny. In retrospect this suggests poor planning by the government - if they had wanted to engineer a confrontation, it would have made sense to build up coal stocks beforehand. In mid-August, with the country rapidly sliding into crisis, Sinclair was forced to call an emergency general election, asking the question “Who governs Arransia?” The Labour Party had been badly split over the issue, with Methuen (1925-2004) taking the view that, although the government had been needlessly confrontational, McArthur was something of a hothead. However, on the day the election was called, the party ejected Methuen and installed in his place the more radical Ian Macrae (b 1928), who was more noted for his oratorical than administrative skills. There ensued a uniquely bitter election campaign against a background of power cuts, picket-line battles, and – ironically – glorious late summer weather. It was hard to see what Sinclair could do to resolve the crisis if he won, although he talked of one or more of imposing martial law, introducing an Emergency Powers Act, and sacking any Marine commanders who refused to help break the strike. There were various wild rumours that he would invite the Brunswickian Army to intervene, or try to create a government of national unity and bring back the elderly Rostron as Chancellor. Macrae, in contrast, continued to insist that the miners’ demands were reasonable and that he was the only man who could resolve the situation. In the event, he won, but by a surprisingly narrow margin, Labour winning 152 seats to the Liberals’ 139 and 5 Independents. Some of Sinclair’s utterances in the final days of the campaign had seemed a touch unhinged, and shortly after the election he seemed to have some kind of nervous breakdown and was replaced, as first temporarily, and then permanently, by Robert Knox. Macrae rapidly came to a settlement with the miners, conceding most, although not all of their demands, and they were back at work within a week. However, matters were not quite so simple, as the government refused to increase the price charged for coal under the NMFF by anything like the same amount, fearing the inflationary effects. The result was that a growing trickle of the smaller and less productive mines began to be put into bankruptcy by their operators, and the miners made redundant with minimal compensation. Coal stocks had not been built up due to the strike during the summer, and by Christmas 1986 the APC had begun to impose a few power cuts again. The government reluctantly raised the coal price, resulting in an immediate 12% increase in domestic electricity prices. But that made Arransian coal more expensive than foreign imports, and in February APC officially applied for a licence to import coal. Since Arransia had hundreds of years of coal reserves, this was self-evidently ridiculous, and the government could not allow it. Instead, they decided they would have to subsidise the electricity price from taxation, and in March the price rise was scaled back to 5%. However, the situation remained clearly unsustainable, and the Liberal MP Keith Wardle (b 1944) was taking the lead in taunting Macrae for the obvious contradictions in his policy. The margin on coal was also still insufficient for the less efficient mines to make money, and the trickle of closures continued. What ultimately happened is that, one-by-one, the collieries agreed local concessions with their miners that restored their viability and allowed the miners to continue working. After the brief flurry of picketing it became clear to the miners’ union that they could do nothing to stop this trend. Likewise, the collieries agreed hidden discounts on the price of coal with APC. The miners, with few exceptions, ended up slightly worse off than they had been at the start of 1986, and in practice the new arrangements went far further towards a free market than Sinclair’s original proposals. 1988 saw the highest level of coal production in Arransia since the 1950s, and a limited amount of coal exporting was begun, which by 2005 had reached 10 million tons a year and has led to the development of new export terminals at Howick and Gosforth. Macrae seemed to be in complete denial about this, continuing to insist that the official wage and price levels were being maintained at all mines which, in terms of headline figures was strictly correct. In late September, when Parliament reconvened after the summer break, he was removed by a party coup – as he himself had removed Methuen – and Methuen restored to the party leadership, thus becoming Chancellor. Methuen in fact was a very competent leader, but his government was not surprisingly something of a lame duck after the coal crisis. Macrae returned to the back benches, and Methuen’s senior ministerial team were largely drawn from Labour’s right wing which had been sceptical about the miners’ stance. The Finance Minister was Barry McLintock (b 1929), Foreign Minister Malcolm Weir (1927-2001) and Home Affairs Minister Henry Coulter (b 1937). This was something of a lost generation of senior Arransian politicians, who missed out on the chance of senior office under either Rostron or Bell. Gordon Bell (b 1943), the future leader, was Minister of Culture and possibly the most successful member of the administration. In general, Methuen’s government pursued a Rostron-type quietist policy. However, in the circumstances of the time, this had much to commend it, and the economy was able to stage a reasonably healthy recovery from 1986, when it had shown a 1.5% overall decline. McLintock is best remembered for introducing reduced rates of duty for small brewers and distillers, while Weir continued Rankine’s approach of building trade relations with other countries, and also sought to expand Arransia’s hitherto rather meagre provision of foreign aid. This gained more publicity than the actual amounts involved deserved, and it was usually conditional on the purchase of Arransian capital equipment. The intelligent, culturally aware Gordon Bell made a name for himself by setting up a national tourist board for the first time. Arransia’s combination of working steam and a wealth of historic cities and monuments was proving an ever-increasing tourist draw, and it made sense to give this official recognition. He also introduced a national scheme for providing a limited measure of state support for the arts, which has sometimes proved controversial but is generally seen as something that is worthwhile in principle to increase the cultural profile of a country often seen abroad as somewhat Philistine. In the transport sphere, the Methuen government's major legacy was the introduction of a scheme to give financial assistance to town and city councils to update their tram and bus fleets, which obviously had the benefit of stimulating the Arransian vehicle building industry. There was a considerable boost to national morale in October 1987 when the Arransians, much against expectations, won the inaugural Rugby World Cup held in Brunswick, defeating Mayenne 15-13 in a final played in heavy, driving rain. They had successfully adapted the rumbustious, physical style typical of domestic rugby to a much more disciplined approach based on a powerful pack and a dead-eye place kicker, and the 78th minute pushover try that won them the match is still vividly remembered today. The 1990 election was held in May, to bring the electoral calendar back on track. It came as no surprise that the Liberals won and Knox, who came across as much calmer and less confrontational than Sinclair, replaced Methuen as Chancellor. However, the closely-fought nature of Arransian politics was demonstrated by the fact that, despite the fact that Labour had been thoroughly discredited, the Liberals only won 157 seats and an overall majority of 18. Knox took office as Chancellor, with Clarkson as Foreign Minister, Keith Wardle as Finance Minister and Jenny Porter as Home Affairs Minister. Adam Sinclair, now fully recovered, returned to office as Defence Minister, and Martin Fogarty, although now 64, was happy to return to the Transport portfolio. Andrew Hazledine became Trade and Industry Minister. There was a definite expectation that the Liberals would be able to take up the baton of the early 1980s again, now much less encumbered by trade union obduracy.
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