Arransian Political History1. 1949: The End of the Great War In the Spring of 1949, Arransia’s position was becoming increasingly desperate. She was still fighting alongside Mayenne in the Great War against Brunswick, but after the failure of the Mayonnaise invasion of Brunswick from South Holburn the previous year, it was clear that ultimate victory, or even setting Brunswick back far enough to consider a status quo peace, was impossible. It was obvious that the only reason Brunswick did not invade Arransia directly (apart from having occupied South Holburn) was that it would be more trouble than it was worth when the main objective of the war was to defeat Mayenne. Running convoys across the Sleeve between Mayenne and Arransia was becoming increasingly problematical, and Arransia was running short of much war materiél, in particular motor fuel and aviation spirit. While making a creditable effort to avoid targeting residential areas, the Brunswickians were systematically putting Arransia’s docks, airfields and munitions factories out of action through bombing. Most of Arransia’s once-proud navy was at the bottom of the sea, the only significant naval forces remaining being the old battleship Great Bear and three destroyers stranded in the Terrapin Islands with limited fuel supplies and even more limited prospects of breaking through back to the home country, and the cruiser Dolphin and another couple of destroyers holed up in a remote inlet on the north coast of Mayenne. There were also a handful of other destroyers, frigates and submarines at various locations. A shortage of locomotives and the bombing of some strategic bridges made rail travel around Arransia very difficult, and intermittent power cuts were now routine in many areas. This is not to say all resistance had died out, however. The Brunswickians were constantly surprised and frustrated by the volume and accuracy of Arransian anti-aircraft fire, which meant that bombing raids were far from a risk-free enterprise. The Mayonnaise still had four crack fighter squadrons based in Arransia which had been bombed out of some forward bases but continued to take a toll on the bombers. Arransia had small forces of submarines and motor torpedo boats based in the enclave of St Cuthbert off the coast of Denhulme which were a thorn in the side of Brunswickian shipping movements into the Tri-Cities, and neutral Denhulme supplied them with as much diesel fuel as they needed. The Arransians still had several squadrons of Perrier P240 four-engined strategic bombers which were based in northern Mayenne, but which would fly over to Arransia, refuel at bases in northern Edirn or Pentmark, and then go on to carry out tip-and-run raids in Brunswick, which may not have done vast amounts of damage but brought home the message that the Arransians were not dead yet. Over the winter of 1948-49, both Arransia and Mayenne delighted in the exploits of Captain Gilbert Duchêne in the cruiser Le Tonnant, who managed to break out of Mayenne and cause an enormous amount of damage and disruption to Brunswickian shipping in the Eastern Ocean. It eventually required two battleships, seven cruisers and an aircraft carrier to track him down, and even then he interned his ship in a neutral port and after the armistice proudly sailed her back to Mayenne, where he was to serve briefly and unsuccessfully as President in the early 1960s. As a commerce raider, Duchêne had more of the buccaneer spirit than Patrick Scullion, but over 100 of his 600 hand-picked crew were Arransians, including virtually the entire engine-room team from the famous Badger. It must be said that few other Mayonnaise commanders shared his daring. But, despite these flashes in the dark, it was clear the game was up. Against this background, there was growing concern that the Chancellor, Charles Ormond (1884-1959) and his two senior military commanders, Field-Marshal Douglas Ransome (1890-1966) and Admiral of the Fleet Peter Clunie (1887-1954), were becoming divorced from the reality of the situation. Ransome had prepared plans for a scorched earth policy and house-to-house resistance in the event of a Brunswickian invasion, which caused alarm amongst most of those who learned of them. The general attitude had become that, if the Brunswickians invaded, “give ‘em the keys and let them sort out the mess.” In mid-April 1949, the Brunswickian President, Michael Hancock (1888-1969) made an uncompromising speech in which he said that in the post-war world, Brunswick would have to consider seriously whether the continued existence of Arransia as an independent state could be tolerated. In reality, this was a threat he was unlikely to carry out, but it served to concentrate minds in Arransia. In late April, a delegation of senior government ministers, led by the Minister of War Production, Edward Cunningham (1894-1970), visited Ormond and made it clear that in their view there was no alternative but to go to Brunswick and sue for whatever terms could be obtained. Behind the scenes, pressure along these lines was also exerted by King Andrew IX (1901-65), who had not previously revealed any serious doubts about the war. Rather than just giving up, Ormond, who was an extremely proud man, insisted on leading the delegation, but the King ensured that he included representatives of other parties, in particular Hector Wolfenden (1880-1956), the veteran Labour politician who had become leader of the party in 1947 and who had a consistent record of scepticism about the war. The talks were held at a country house hotel just outside Ynysforgan, and both parties gave orders to their forces to hold back in the war effort, although on the Arransian side this did not filter through very well, and the negotiations were marred by a particularly destructive air raid on an oil refinery at Elko which in terms of the value of damage done was the most costly Arransian raid of 1949. An agreement was thrashed out within three days – the Arransians really had no worthwhile bargaining chips and seemed more concerned to stress the amount of devastation that had been done to their armed forces and economy. For their part, the Brunswickians knew that to have a beaten, impoverished, resentful Arransia on their borders would not be desirable, and while they were not exactly generous were concerned to keep Arransia on side in the uncertain post-war world. Brunswick insisted on keeping control of South Holburn, which was the only part of Arransia from which it was realistically possible to launch a major land attack into Brunswick. She also required Arransia to restrict the size of her land-based military forces to 30,000 men, and obtained a veto on any significant future Arransian purchases of military hardware. Arransia was expected to declare war on Mayenne and eventually to put some forces into the field to fight alongside Brunswick. However, Arransia was allowed to retain her somewhat meagre colonies, and such naval vessels as had not been sunk. Arransia’s military aircraft were generally of Mayonnaise manufacture and would be of little value without spare parts. Brunswick undertook to re-equip the Arransian armed forces using war surplus equipment, and also to advance Arransia a ten-year credit of BN$250 million to assist with postwar reconstruction, although in return for the latter Arransia had to remove many barriers to the import of Brunswickian goods, meaning that much of it would be spent in Brunswick. Arransia had managed to salvage a little national pride, and avoided the spectre of Brunswickian troops marching into Danby, and so what became known as the Treaty of Ynysforgan was signed on 6 May, and the following day simultaneously announced over the radio to their respective countries by President Hancock and King Andrew. It has been a subject of fascination to historians ever since that the two broadcasts conveyed distinctly different messages, almost to the extent that they did not seem to be describing the same event. The peace treaty is usually referred to as "The Armistice" in Arransia, and it is very difficult to get any Arransian to admit that the country had in any meaningful sense lost the war. Arransia went very quiet, but there was a palpable feeling of relief in the air that the ordeal was over. A week later came Ugglesby Head Day, which was effectively Arransia’s national day and was often the occasion for enthusiastic celebration. Despite the war, Arransia had always to some extent celebrated public holidays, but the mood on this occasion was uniquely sombre and remained in the memories of all those who experienced it. Many bonded stores that had been closed since the beginning of the war were opened up, but never, it was said, had so much beer and whisky been consumed and so few people felt remotely drunk. The Dolphin and her two destroyers, which were all in a high state of readiness, managed to escape from their anchorage and make a dash for Golsingby before the Mayonnaise could stop them. The old cruiser Sealion, which had been damaged and was laid up in a Mayonnaise port with a skeleton crew, was not so lucky, trying to make a getaway but being sunk by gunfire with the loss of a number of lives. The Great Bear and the three destroyers in the Terrapin Islands made a more leisurely return once Brunswick had been able to supply them with oil fuel. Although they were of little future fighting value, most of the Arransian bombers at Mayonnaise bases managed to make their escape, while the Arransians allowed most of the Mayonnaise air forces on their soil to return home. A number, however, who had a record of being political dissidents, asked to be allowed to stay, and in 1954, when the Brunswickians came to train the Arransian jet fighter squadrons that would be embarked on the Queen Margaret, were somewhat taken aback to find that a third of the pilots were Mayonnaise. The depleted Mayonnaise land forces in Arransia were allowed to trickle over the border into neutral Denhulme, minus their heavy equipment. They had in fact been ordered to seize power in Arransia following the armistice, but made no attempt to carry this out. Most problematical was the fate of the 75,000 Arransian soldiers engaged on the land front in Mayenne, some of whom in tank regiments were widely acknowledged as amongst of the finest fighting units of the war on either side. Most were volunteers, and many had distinctly right-wing, pro-Mayonnaise sympathies. In the end about 40%, mostly in the élite regiments, chose to carry on fighting, the remainder being either interned or allowed to sneak across the border into neutral Colmar. About 200, regrettably, were shot by the Mayonnaise. When the ceasefire eventually came, the 40% were left in a very awkward situation. Most eventually slunk back to Arransia, but it was always something that the country was reluctant to discuss, whereas if you were a veteran of the Badger you could get free drinks all night. It was only in the late 1990s, as the survivors approached extreme old age, that a detailed history of “Arransia’s Forgotten Army” was written and a TV documentary aired. Although Ormond had played a leading role in the negotiations with Brunswick, it was clear that he could not continue as Chancellor, and the King insisted that Wolfenden, as someone not directly implicated in the war effort, take over as head of a government of national unity. Parliament was suspended prior to the holding of new elections in September. Edward Cunningham agreed to serve as Minister of Reconstruction, but most of the new ministers were Labour or Liberal, the Liberal leader Magnus Kerr (1892-1975) becoming Foreign Minister. It should be pointed out that, while Arransia is a constitutional monarchy, the king is theoretically in a position to play a much greater role in government than in the UK, and indeed King Andrew IX sometimes chaired cabinet meetings. The fact that this has not happened in recent years is more down to the personality of Malcolm VII, who has been more interested in the arts and conservation than in politics. One of the first acts of the new government was to carry out a purge of the senior military officers. The Navy did not suffer too badly, with only Clunie and a few staff oficers losing their jobs, but the Army lost Ransome and all the field officers of General rank and above, who had all been closely involved in the Mayonnaise invasion planning of 1948. What remained of the Army was for the time being put under the command of General George McLeish (1897-1986), the commander of the Royal Marines, pending a review of its long-term future. There were, however, no war crimes trials – all the sacked officers were allowed to continue to live as private citizens and indeed several wrote memoirs in the 1950s. One of Arransia’s remaining flying boats was rapidly despatched to the Terrapin Islands to bring home Admiral Alan Henderson (1891-1978), the senior seagoing admiral who, as a political enemy of Clunie, had been allowed to languish there for over two years. Henderson, whose bluff, avuncular exterior concealed a very incisive mind, was the obvious candidate to be the new Admiral of the Fleet, and he soon secured the return of his protegé Patrick Scullion (1898-1995) from Orestina. Scullion was promoted to a full admiral and became Henderson’s Chief of Staff. Thus Arransia gained two very able men at the head of her armed forces, whose talents had largely been wasted during the latter part of the war. While Arransia was now nominally fighting alongside Brunswick against Mayenne, Henderson made it very clear that given her depleted forces it would not be possible to make any meaningful contribution in the short term. Although some in Brunswick felt this was foot-dragging, with the benefit of hindsight it is difficult to argue with his conclusion. Brunswick fairly swiftly transferred the large cruiser Elko to Arransia (which became the Lynx) and four large modern destroyers, and Henderson undertook that together with the Dolphin he would be able to offer an effective naval squadron by November. This was somewhat unfortunate as Elko had suffered the last major Arransian bombing raid of the war, and the city council were most unhappy that it was “their” cruiser that had been given to the erstwhile enemy. As matters turned out, this was never needed, as Brunswick brought the war to a swift conclusion in July by means of a demonstration nuclear explosion, which rapidly made the Mayonnaise leaders sue for peace. Brunswick aimed to impose harsher terms on Mayenne than on Arransia, including the surrender of some warships, giving Brunswick a mandate over some of her more economically valuable colonies, and imposing a new democratic constitution on the country. The Arransians kept a careful eye on proceedings to ensure that no reconstruction aid was given to Mayenne that was not offered to them at the same time. This proved unnecessary, as a series of revolts ousted the old government and installed a Popular Front with a strong Communist element. Brunswick ensured she got the colonies, and destroyed a large number of warships and military aircraft, but after that was happy to get out of the place and leave the Mayonnaise to their own devices. Although limited diplomatic relations were restored with Brunswick and Arransia in 1951, it was 1978 before a comprehensive peace treaty was concluded between the three countries. One of the enduring mysteries of the war is the background to the near-suicidal raid by a joint Arransian and Mayonnaise bomber force on the Brunswickian nuclear development facility in the south-west of the country in February 1948, which set the programme back by at least two months. The Arransian records clearly show that they had no idea what was going on there, but the Mayonnaise burnt most of their war archives, and it has never been established to what extent they knew the real nature of the project. After this, Brunswick beefed up the local air defences, and another attempted raid in January 1949 was a total failure. The priorities of the new government were very clear – getting the troops home and demobilised as far as possible, patching up the roads and railways, and getting industry working again, particularly those industries that could produce export goods. Although it was seen as something of a guilty pleasure, there was a boom in sales of Arransian whisky in Brunswick in the latter half of 1949. Some had been left to mature for seven years longer than normal and was regarded as particularly smooth and full-flavoured. The Arransians had prudently allowed a significant part of their merchant fleet to be interned in neutral ports and it was not long before they were able to start trading again. In late July the first shipment of Terrapin bananas for over two and a half years was cheered into the port of Ince. Brunswick made available a limited quantity of fuel, and in August a modest ration of two gallons of petrol a week could be given to private motorists who could demonstrate a need. Arransia had never had petrol rationing during the war, but prices went sky-high and by late 1948 the supply had effectively dried up anyway. In practice, once the border controls had been eased, petrol smuggling became rife, and in 1952 Arransia replaced rationing by a very high tax. The General Election was held in the middle of September. This was the last Arransian election to be run on the pure first-past-the-post system rather than the current two-round system. With the benefit of hindsight, the Conservatives made a fatal strategic mistake by refusing to dissociate themselves from Ormond and replace him as leader with Cunningham. Although they were somewhat discredited by their association with the war, there was still strong Conservative sentiment in the country, and indeed Arransia in many ways is a small-c conservative nation. It is far from inconceivable to imagine modern-day Arransia with Labour confronted by a Conservative-Liberal alliance. But the outcome was that the Conservatives won a mere 28 seats, against 152 for Labour, 85 for the Liberals and an unusually large number of 31 Independents, some of whom were in fact disaffected Conservatives. Wolfenden could have created a majority Labour government, but in the interests of national unity he chose to maintain the coalition with the Liberals, with Kerr remaining as Foreign Minister. Patrick Scullion had decided to step down from the Navy in favour of a political career, and was returned unopposed as Liberal member for Lawrenny. In fact Scullion’s family had a strong Liberal tradition and this was far from an opportunistic move. Not surprisingly, Scullion was immediately appointed as Minister of Defence. Cunningham was returned as an Independent member and continued in post as Minister of Reconstruction. Ormond won a thumping majority in his constituency of St Michael’s Hill, Danby, but unfortunately over the next few years was usually reduced to bitterness and bluster, and the Conservatives faded into oblivion as an electoral force. Labour and the Liberals for five years maintained a ban on anyone who had been a Conservative MP in the 1940-49 Parliament, but in fact in 1957 eleven former Conservatives were elected, eight as Liberals, three as Labour. It is often asserted that the vast majority of former Conservatives drifted over to the Liberals, but in fact Arransian politics is based much more on sectional interests than those of the UK, and many Conservative-supporting small farmers transferred their allegiance to Labour, which explains how agricultural Lunan was strongly Conservative before the Great War, and is now strongly Labour.
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